IB ESS Predicted Topics 2026
IB ESS is one of the most pattern-predictable Diploma courses: energy and biomass, the carbon and nitrogen cycles, biodiversity and conservation, and pollution management recur across nearly every Paper 1 and Paper 2. The ranking below weights each topic by how often it has appeared in past papers and the marks it carried, so you revise the highest-yield material first.
November 2026 Exam Countdown
Time is ticking. Are you ready?
ESS Paper 2 Crash Course
Work through key skills step-by-step, then get AI feedback on your answers.
Full IB Exam Timetable
See all exam dates so you can prioritise what to revise first.
Top Predicted Topics
Species, Populations
Appeared 60 times in recent past papers (Total: 225 marks). Last seen in 2025.
Threats to Biodiversity
Appeared 50 times in recent past papers (Total: 184 marks). Last seen in 2025.
Agriculture and Food
Appeared 43 times in recent past papers (Total: 170 marks). Last seen in 2026.
Water Pollution
Appeared 42 times in recent past papers (Total: 146 marks). Last seen in 2025.
Natural Selection, Variation and Speciation
Appeared 42 times in recent past papers (Total: 99 marks). Last seen in 2025.
Communities and Ecosystems
Appeared 41 times in recent past papers (Total: 119 marks). Last seen in 2025.
Equilibrium, Stability and Resilience
Appeared 38 times in recent past papers (Total: 154 marks). Last seen in 2026.
Models, Systems and Loops
Appeared 38 times in recent past papers (Total: 162 marks). Last seen in 2026.
Aquatic Food Production Systems
Appeared 35 times in recent past papers (Total: 121 marks). Last seen in 2025.
Biodiversity
Appeared 35 times in recent past papers (Total: 116 marks). Last seen in 2025.
Water Access, Use and Security
Appeared 30 times in recent past papers (Total: 98 marks). Last seen in 2025.
Soil Systems
Appeared 25 times in recent past papers (Total: 88 marks). Last seen in 2026.
Environmental Systems
Appeared 19 times in recent past papers (Total: 144 marks). Last seen in 2026.
Habitat, Niche and Interactions
Appeared 19 times in recent past papers (Total: 43 marks). Last seen in 2025.
Water Systems
Appeared 15 times in recent past papers (Total: 34 marks). Last seen in 2025.
Food Chains & Webs and Trophic Levels
Appeared 14 times in recent past papers (Total: 26 marks). Last seen in 2025.
Flows of Energy and Matter
Appeared 13 times in recent past papers (Total: 39 marks). Last seen in 2025.
Urban Systems and Urban Planning
Appeared 7 times in recent past papers (Total: 18 marks). Last seen in 2024.
Climate Change — Causes and Impacts
Appeared 5 times in recent past papers (Total: 10 marks). Last seen in 2024.
Solid Waste
Appeared 5 times in recent past papers (Total: 13 marks). Last seen in 2024.
Urban Air Pollution
Appeared 4 times in recent past papers (Total: 10 marks). Last seen in 2024.
Energy Sources — Uses and Management
Appeared 3 times in recent past papers (Total: 8 marks). Last seen in 2024.
Natural Resources — Uses and Management
Appeared 2 times in recent past papers (Total: 5 marks). Last seen in 2024.
Climate Change — Mitigation and Adaptation
Appeared 2 times in recent past papers (Total: 11 marks). Last seen in 2024.
Human Populations
Appeared 2 times in recent past papers (Total: 2 marks). Last seen in 2024.
Introduction to the Atmosphere
Appeared 1 times in recent past papers (Total: 1 marks). Last seen in 2024.
Frequently asked questions
Are these official IB ESS predictions?
No — they are data-driven forecasts from our own analysis of past ESS papers, not leaked or official IB material. They show which topics have historically appeared most often so you can prioritise; the real exam can test any part of the syllabus.
How are the ESS predictions calculated?
We count how often each ESS sub-topic has appeared across recent Paper 1 and Paper 2 questions, weight it by the marks awarded, and rank topics by that combined score. Systems diagrams and the environmental value systems are tracked separately because they recur regardless of topic.
How should I revise with them?
Start with the highest-probability topics, make sure you can draw the key systems diagrams and define every ESS command term, then broaden out. Use the ranking to sequence revision — not to skip topics.
Don't leave your grade to chance
Unlock the full Exam Vault with AI grading, detailed mark-scheme feedback, and personalised study plans.
Start Practicing NowNo credit card required · Cancel anytime