#1 Most Tested
Topic 2.1 High Priority
Species, Populations
Appeared 90 times in recent past papers (Total: 278 marks). Last seen in 2026.
100%
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IB ESS Predicted Topics 2026
IB ESS is one of the most pattern-predictable Diploma courses: energy and biomass, the carbon and nitrogen cycles, biodiversity and conservation, and pollution management recur across nearly every Paper 1 and Paper 2. The ranking below weights each topic by how often it has appeared in past papers and the marks it carried, so you revise the highest-yield material first.
Forecast snapshot
November 2026 Exam Countdown
16days
until exam
27
Ranked topics
ESS Paper 2 Crash Course
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Top Predicted Topics
Topic 2.2
Communities and Ecosystems
Appeared 68 times in recent past papers (Total: 179 marks). Last seen in 2026.
76%
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Topic 7.3
Solid Waste
Appeared 66 times in recent past papers (Total: 152 marks). Last seen in 2026.
73%
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Topic 3.2
Natural Selection, Variation and Speciation
Appeared 60 times in recent past papers (Total: 151 marks). Last seen in 2026.
67%
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Topic 1.3
Equilibrium, Stability and Resilience
Appeared 56 times in recent past papers (Total: 213 marks). Last seen in 2026.
62%
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Topic 8.1
Human Populations
Appeared 55 times in recent past papers (Total: 141 marks). Last seen in 2026.
61%
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Topic 3.3
Threats to Biodiversity
Appeared 53 times in recent past papers (Total: 203 marks). Last seen in 2026.
59%
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Topic 7.2
Energy Sources — Uses and Management
Appeared 51 times in recent past papers (Total: 139 marks). Last seen in 2026.
57%
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Topic 5.2
Agriculture and Food
Appeared 49 times in recent past papers (Total: 149 marks). Last seen in 2026.
54%
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Topic 8.3
Urban Air Pollution
Appeared 48 times in recent past papers (Total: 140 marks). Last seen in 2026.
53%
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Topic 3.1
Biodiversity
Appeared 44 times in recent past papers (Total: 125 marks). Last seen in 2026.
49%
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Topic 5.1
Soil Systems
Appeared 40 times in recent past papers (Total: 91 marks). Last seen in 2026.
44%
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Topic 4.3
Aquatic Food Production Systems
Appeared 40 times in recent past papers (Total: 122 marks). Last seen in 2026.
44%
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Topic 4.4
Water Pollution
Appeared 38 times in recent past papers (Total: 127 marks). Last seen in 2026.
42%
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Topic 4.2
Water Access, Use and Security
Appeared 38 times in recent past papers (Total: 111 marks). Last seen in 2026.
42%
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Topic 1.2
Models, Systems and Loops
Appeared 37 times in recent past papers (Total: 178 marks). Last seen in 2026.
41%
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Topic 2.4
Food Chains & Webs and Trophic Levels
Appeared 35 times in recent past papers (Total: 68 marks). Last seen in 2026.
39%
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Topic 6.2
Climate Change — Causes and Impacts
Appeared 30 times in recent past papers (Total: 120 marks). Last seen in 2026.
33%
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Topic 6.4
Stratospheric Ozone
Appeared 28 times in recent past papers (Total: 64 marks). Last seen in 2025.
31%
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Topic 2.3
Habitat, Niche and Interactions
Appeared 27 times in recent past papers (Total: 73 marks). Last seen in 2026.
30%
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Topic 7.1
Natural Resources — Uses and Management
Appeared 25 times in recent past papers (Total: 92 marks). Last seen in 2026.
28%
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Topic 1.1
Environmental Systems
Appeared 24 times in recent past papers (Total: 172 marks). Last seen in 2026.
27%
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Topic 6.3
Climate Change — Mitigation and Adaptation
Appeared 22 times in recent past papers (Total: 81 marks). Last seen in 2026.
24%
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Topic 4.1
Water Systems
Appeared 19 times in recent past papers (Total: 43 marks). Last seen in 2026.
21%
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Topic 2.5
Flows of Energy and Matter
Appeared 18 times in recent past papers (Total: 50 marks). Last seen in 2026.
20%
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Topic 8.2
Urban Systems and Urban Planning
Appeared 8 times in recent past papers (Total: 25 marks). Last seen in 2026.
9%
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Topic 6.1
Introduction to the Atmosphere
Appeared 5 times in recent past papers (Total: 14 marks). Last seen in 2025.
6%
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Frequently asked questions
Are these official IB ESS predictions?
No — they are data-driven forecasts from our own analysis of past ESS papers, not leaked or official IB material. They show which topics have historically appeared most often so you can prioritise; the real exam can test any part of the syllabus.
How are the ESS predictions calculated?
We count how often each ESS sub-topic has appeared across recent Paper 1 and Paper 2 questions, weight it by the marks awarded, and rank topics by that combined score. Systems diagrams and the environmental value systems are tracked separately because they recur regardless of topic.
How should I revise with them?
Start with the highest-probability topics, make sure you can draw the key systems diagrams and define every ESS command term, then broaden out. Use the ranking to sequence revision — not to skip topics.
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