IB Math AA SL Predicted Topics 2026

IB Math AA SL leans on calculus, functions, algebra, and sequences and series, with Paper 1 sat entirely without a calculator. The ranking below orders each topic by how often it has been tested, so you target the highest-yield techniques — and the by-hand methods Paper 1 demands — first.

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Top Predicted Topics

#1 Most Tested
Topic 1.7 High Priority

Laws of Exponents and Logarithms

Appeared 16 times in recent past papers (Total: 70 marks). Last seen in 2025.

100%probability
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Topic 1.2 High Priority

Arithmetic Sequences and Series

Appeared 15 times in recent past papers (Total: 90 marks). Last seen in 2025.

94%probability
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Topic 5.9 High Priority

Kinematics

Appeared 15 times in recent past papers (Total: 46 marks). Last seen in 2025.

94%probability
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Topic 5.8 High Priority

Stationary Points and Optimisation

Appeared 14 times in recent past papers (Total: 44 marks). Last seen in 2025.

88%probability
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Topic 1.9

The Binomial Theorem

Appeared 12 times in recent past papers (Total: 51 marks). Last seen in 2025.

75%probability
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Topic 4.8

Binomial Distribution

Appeared 11 times in recent past papers (Total: 28 marks). Last seen in 2025.

69%probability
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Topic 4.5

Probability Fundamentals

Appeared 9 times in recent past papers (Total: 22 marks). Last seen in 2025.

56%probability
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Topic 1.3

Geometric Sequences and Series

Appeared 9 times in recent past papers (Total: 44 marks). Last seen in 2025.

56%probability
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Topic 4.3

Central Tendency and Spread

Appeared 7 times in recent past papers (Total: 23 marks). Last seen in 2025.

44%probability
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Topic 1.4

Financial Mathematics

Appeared 7 times in recent past papers (Total: 72 marks). Last seen in 2025.

44%probability
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Topic 5.11

Definite Integration

Appeared 7 times in recent past papers (Total: 32 marks). Last seen in 2025.

44%probability
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Topic 4.2

Representing Data

Appeared 6 times in recent past papers (Total: 13 marks). Last seen in 2025.

38%probability
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Topic 4.11

Conditional Probability

Appeared 6 times in recent past papers (Total: 23 marks). Last seen in 2025.

38%probability
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Topic 4.9

Normal Distribution

Appeared 6 times in recent past papers (Total: 12 marks). Last seen in 2025.

38%probability
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Topic 4.4

Correlation and Regression

Appeared 6 times in recent past papers (Total: 13 marks). Last seen in 2025.

38%probability
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Topic 4.7

Discrete Random Variables

Appeared 6 times in recent past papers (Total: 19 marks). Last seen in 2025.

38%probability
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Topic 5.4

Tangents and Normals

Appeared 6 times in recent past papers (Total: 17 marks). Last seen in 2025.

38%probability
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Topic 5.6

Differentiation Rules

Appeared 5 times in recent past papers (Total: 15 marks). Last seen in 2025.

31%probability
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Topic 5.3

Differentiating Powers

Appeared 4 times in recent past papers (Total: 10 marks). Last seen in 2025.

25%probability
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Topic 4.6

Combined Events

Appeared 3 times in recent past papers (Total: 8 marks). Last seen in 2025.

19%probability
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Topic 4.12

Standardized Normal and Inverse

Appeared 3 times in recent past papers (Total: 10 marks). Last seen in 2025.

19%probability
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Topic 1.6

Proof

Appeared 3 times in recent past papers (Total: 14 marks). Last seen in 2024.

19%probability
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Topic 1.8

Infinite Geometric Series

Appeared 3 times in recent past papers (Total: 17 marks). Last seen in 2025.

19%probability
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Topic 1.1

Standard Form

Appeared 2 times in recent past papers (Total: 6 marks). Last seen in 2021.

12%probability
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Topic 5.5

Introduction to Integration

Appeared 2 times in recent past papers (Total: 6 marks). Last seen in 2025.

12%probability
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Topic 5.1

Introduction to Differentiation

Appeared 2 times in recent past papers (Total: 2 marks). Last seen in 2025.

12%probability
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Topic 5.10

Integration by Substitution

Appeared 2 times in recent past papers (Total: 11 marks). Last seen in 2023.

12%probability
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Topic 5.7

The Second Derivative

Appeared 2 times in recent past papers (Total: 5 marks). Last seen in 2025.

12%probability
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Topic 5.2

Increasing and Decreasing Functions

Appeared 1 times in recent past papers (Total: 2 marks). Last seen in 2019.

6%probability
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Topic 4.10

Prediction from Regression

Appeared 1 times in recent past papers (Total: 2 marks). Last seen in 2023.

6%probability
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Topic 1.5

Introduction to Logarithms

Appeared 1 times in recent past papers (Total: 7 marks). Last seen in 2022.

6%probability
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Topic 4.1

Sampling

Appeared 1 times in recent past papers (Total: 1 marks). Last seen in 2025.

6%probability
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Paper-specific prediction pages

Math AA HL Paper 1 predicted questions 2026

Start with the free paper-specific prediction page, then move to guided crash-course practice.

Math AA HL Paper 2 predicted questions 2026

Start with the free paper-specific prediction page, then move to guided crash-course practice.

Math AA HL Paper 3 predicted questions 2026

Start with the free paper-specific prediction page, then move to guided crash-course practice.

Frequently asked questions

Are these official IB Math AA SL predictions?

No — these are our own data-driven forecasts from past Math AA SL papers, not official or leaked IB content. They show which topics appear most often; the exam can still test any part of the course.

How are the Math AA SL predictions calculated?

We count how often each AA SL topic has been examined across recent Paper 1 and Paper 2 questions and weight it by marks, then rank by that score. Paper 1 is non-calculator, so the by-hand methods each topic needs are factored into how to revise them.

How should I revise with them?

Lead with the top-ranked topics and practise the by-hand techniques Paper 1 demands, then broaden out. Use the ranking to sequence revision rather than leave topics out.

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