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v0.1.1506
NotesMath AATopic 4.5Basic probability
Back to Math AA Topics
4.5.11 min read

Basic probability

IB Mathematics: Analysis and Approaches • Unit 4

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Contents

  • Probability of an event
  • The complement & 'at least one'
  • Sample space diagrams
  • Sequential events without replacement
Favourable outcomes over total outcomes: When outcomes are equally likely, the probability of event A is the number of favourable outcomes ÷ the total number of outcomes.

Every probability lies between 0 and 1.

The sample space of two dice (36 outcomes): count the favourable squares over 36 to get the probability.

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n(A) = favourable outcomes, n(U) = total outcomes in the sample space.

IB-style question — single event

A bag holds 5 red, 3 blue and 2 green counters.

One is taken at random.

Find the probability it is red.

Step by step

  1. Total counters.
  2. Favourable ÷ total.

Final answer

P(red) = 1/2.

Probabilities never exceed 1: If you get a probability above 1 or below 0, you've made an error — recheck your counts.

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P(not A) = 1 − P(A): The complement of A is 'A does not happen', with P(A′) = 1 − P(A).

This is the fast route to 'at least one' questions: P(at least one) = 1 − P(none).
Use the complement when 'at least one' would need many cases.

IB-style question — at least one

Two fair dice are rolled.

Find the probability of getting at least one six.

Step by step

  1. P(no six on one die) = 5/6, so P(no six on both).
  2. Complement.

Final answer

P(at least one six) = 11/36.

'At least one' → do the opposite: Counting every 'at least one' case is slow; 1 − P(none) is almost always faster.

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List every equally likely outcome in a grid: A sample space diagram (grid or list) shows every equally likely outcome.

For two dice there are 36 outcomes; count the ones matching the event and divide by 36.

IB-style question — two dice

Two fair dice are rolled and the scores added.

Find the probability the total is 7.

Step by step

  1. Total outcomes in the grid.
  2. Outcomes giving 7: (1,6),(2,5),(3,4),(4,3),(5,2),(6,1).

Final answer

P(total = 7) = 1/6.

Order matters in the grid: (2,5) and (5,2) are different cells — count ordered outcomes so the total is 36.
Multiply along the chain — and update the totals: For events one after another, multiply the probabilities along the way.

Without replacement, the counts change after each draw (one fewer item, and one fewer of that type).

IB-style question — without replacement

A box has 4 red and 6 blue pens.

Two are drawn without replacement.

Find the probability both are red.

Step by step

  1. First red: 4 of 10.
  2. Second red: now 3 of 9. Multiply.

Final answer

P(both red) = 2/15.

Reduce the totals each time: After the first draw there are 9 pens left, not 10 — forgetting to reduce both totals is the classic slip.

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Two fair coins are tossed. the sample space and find the probability of exactly one head. [2 marks]

Related Math AA Topics

Continue learning with these related topics from the same unit:

4.1.1Populations & samples
4.1.2Sampling techniques
4.2.1Frequency & histograms
4.2.2Cumulative frequency
View all Math AA topics

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