Modern African states — instability and external involvement (History (2028+) HL)

Since 1945, many African states have swung between civilian rule, one-party states and military takeovers. This micro asks why — and how much outsiders are to blame.

A coup d'état coup d'état is a fast, often violent way to grab power without an election. Across Ethiopia, Somalia, Niger, Zambia and Zimbabwe, coups and civil wars share recurring causes — but historians debate which cause matters most in each case.

Cause and consequence: Paper 3 rewards you for weighing MULTIPLE causes against each other, not just listing them. Always ask: which cause was necessary, and which was just a trigger?

Ethnic tension: a real cause, but not the whole story

Colonial rulers had often favoured one ethnic group for administration and education, leaving resentment that exploded after independence. In Ethiopia, the military Derg regime (1974–1991) and its economic and political favouritism kept the country's many ethnic groups — including Amhara, Oromo and Tigrayan communities — in competition rather than partnership.

That resentment did not disappear when the Derg fell. The EPRDF government (1991–2018), built around ethnic federalism ethnic federalism, still left some groups feeling shut out of real power — a tension that resurfaced violently in the Tigray conflict from November 2020.

Somalia shows a different kind of ethnic-style division: clan clan loyalty. When Siad Barre's government collapsed in 1991, there was no strong national identity to hold rival clans together, so the state fractured into clan-based militias fighting for territory and power.

The historians' debate: Some argue ethnic division is the deepest, oldest cause of instability — rooted in colonial 'divide and rule'. Others argue it is a symptom, not the root cause: politicians use ethnic identity to build support once governments fail to deliver jobs, justice or security. Which side you take shapes your whole essay argument.

That second view leads to the other big cause: failure of civilian government itself. When elected leaders cling to power through rigged elections, one-party rule, or corruption, they lose legitimacy — and militaries or rebels claim they are 'saving the nation' by stepping in.

Niger's July 2023 coup, which removed elected President Mohamed Bazoum, is a clear recent case. The military justified it by pointing to insecurity from jihadist violence in the Sahel and weak governance — but critics argue it was really about the army protecting its own power and privileges.

Politics rarely collapses in a vacuum. Behind most coups and civil wars in this study sits an economic story: who has money, who doesn't, and what happens when the economy fails.

Significance: Ask: was the economic problem a DEEP, structural cause (like inequality built into the system) or a SHORT-TERM shock (like a price crash)? Both appear in this region's history — knowing which is which strengthens your argument.

Zambia is the clearest example of a commodity commodity-dependent economy in crisis. At independence in 1964, copper exports funded most of the state's income. When world copper prices collapsed in the 1970s–80s, government revenue crashed too.

The result was foreign debt, IMF-imposed austerity, and public fury over falling wages and rising food prices. This economic pain fed the pressure that eventually forced Kaunda to allow multi-party elections in 1991, which he then lost.

Inequality made these problems worse. In Zimbabwe, land ownership stayed heavily skewed toward a small number of white commercial farmers for two decades after independence, while most Black Zimbabweans farmed small, less productive plots. When the government's chaotic Fast Track Land Reform Programme Fast Track Land Reform Programme disrupted commercial farming from 2000, it triggered economic collapse and hyperinflation that reached billions of percent by 2008.

Environmental factors compound economic strain, especially in the Sahel and Horn of Africa. Niger and Ethiopia both sit in drought-prone zones, where unreliable rainfall regularly destroys crops and kills livestock.

Worked example — connecting the dots: In Ethiopia in the 1980s, drought caused mass famine — but the Derg regime's forced villagization policies and its focus on fighting civil wars (rather than famine relief) turned a natural disaster into a political catastrophe. This shows environmental and governance failures reinforcing each other, not acting alone.

Exam tip: Never treat 'economic problems' and 'environmental factors' as separate boxes to tick. The strongest essays show how they interact — a drought becomes a crisis only when a government mismanages the response.

African states did not become unstable in isolation. Outside powers and institutions were deeply involved — sometimes making things worse, sometimes trying (with mixed success) to fix them.

Cold War rivalry: fuel on the fire

The Horn of Africa is the textbook case. In the 1970s, the USSR switched its support from Somalia to the new Marxist Derg government in Ethiopia, while the USA moved in to arm Somalia instead. Both superpowers wanted a foothold near the strategically vital Red Sea.

This arms race helped fuel the Ogaden War (1977–78), when Somalia invaded Ethiopia's Ogaden region. Ethiopia, backed by Soviet weapons and Cuban troops, won — but both countries were left awash with weapons that kept circulating in later conflicts, including Somalia's later civil war.

Neocolonialism neocolonialism describes how, even after independence, former colonial powers and multinational companies kept major economic influence over African states — for example, through control of mining profits or trade terms that favoured foreign buyers over local development.

Don't overstate it either way: It's tempting to blame everything on outsiders, or to insist Africans alone are responsible. A top-band answer holds BOTH ideas at once: external forces shaped the conditions, but internal decisions shaped the outcomes.

The African Union and the UN: prevention and peacekeeping

The African Union African Union officially condemns unconstitutional changes of government. Its Constitutive Act commits it to suspend any member state where a coup takes place — as it did with Niger after the 2023 coup.

But suspension is largely symbolic. The AU has limited military and financial power to reverse a coup or rebuild a collapsed state, so its condemnations often arrive without much practical force behind them.

The UN UN has intervened directly in Somalia. UNOSOM (1992–95), backed by a US-led force (UNITAF), aimed to protect famine relief and disarm militias. After the notorious 1993 'Black Hawk Down' battle in Mogadishu killed US soldiers, American and UN forces withdrew, leaving Somalia's central government still collapsed.

Remember: Somalia's UN mission shows both sides of external involvement: genuine humanitarian intent, but limited success once local resistance and political will at home in intervening countries ran out.