Key Idea: Six very different countries — Ethiopia, Niger, Somalia, Tunisia, Zambia, Zimbabwe — all went through the same rough journey after 1945: colonial rule gave way to independence, independence gave way to strongman one-party or military rule, some economies grew while others collapsed, and coups/civil wars kept breaking out along ethnic, economic and Cold War fault lines. No single cause explains all six. The examiners want you to weigh causes against each other, not just list them.
How this topic is tested (Paper 3)
Paper 3 gives you two evaluate-the-claim essays worth 15 marks each. You do NOT need historiography (no naming historians) for top marks — you need a clear thesis, specific evidence from your prescribed countries, and a substantiated final judgement. Top band (13-15): directly engages the claim, weighs more than one side, reaches a clear verdict backed by precise dates and names. Middle band (7-9): mostly describes events, judgement is asserted rather than proven. Always name the actual country and dates — never say 'Africa' in general.
Must-know facts — one row per sub-topic
| Sub-topic | What it covers | Must-know names & dates |
|---|---|---|
| 10.12.1 — Rise & fall of strongman rule | Why one-party/military rule took over after independence, and why it later gave way to multi-party elections | Colonial legacy = no democratic practice; Zimbabwe's Bush War (1964-79) → Mugabe's ZANU wins 1980; Gukurahundi killings of Ndebele civilians (1983-87, ~10,000-20,000 dead) → 1987 Unity Accord folds ZAPU into ZANU-PF; Zambia: Kaunda's UNIP declares one-party state 1972 ('unity'/African humanism argument); Somalia: Siad Barre coup 1969, ruled 22 yrs via clan politics; Niger: Seyni Kountché coup 1974; End of Cold War (1989-91) + IMF/World Bank structural adjustment conditions + Zambia's copper-price collapse + food riots (1986, 1990) → 1991 referendum → Chiluba's MMD beats Kaunda, peaceful handover |
| 10.12.2 — Economic development & its social costs | Whether stability, leaders, infrastructure and technology produced growth — and why growth didn't fix health/education/gender problems | Ethiopia: Meles Zenawi's 'developmental state' (1991-2012), 8-11% growth, GERD dam (started 2011, citizen-funded bonds); Tunisia: Bourguiba (1957-87) reforms incl. 1956 Code of Personal Status (banned polygamy, girls' education), then Ben Ali (1987-2011) — growth concentrated on the coast, feeding the 2011 uprising; Zambia: copper nationalised 1969 (ZCCM), price crash 1970s = stagnation; Zimbabwe: stable but hyperinflation (billions of % by 2008) after 2000 land seizures; Niger: uranium exports (Areva/Orano) enriched few, high population growth (3%+/yr), low female literacy; Somalia: no state after 1991 — private telecoms/remittances (e.g. Dahabshiil) filled the gap; 1983-85 Ethiopian famine (400,000-1 million deaths, worsened by Derg policy not just drought) |
| 10.12.3 — Coups, civil wars & instability | Internal causes (ethnic tension, weak government, economic/environmental strain) interacting with external causes (Cold War, neocolonialism, AU/UN) | Ethiopia: Derg (1974-91) ethnic favouritism → EPRDF ethnic federalism → Tigray conflict (Nov 2020); Somalia: clan loyalty replaces state after Barre's fall (1991) → civil war; Zimbabwe: Gukurahundi (1983-87, Shona vs Ndebele); Niger: July 2023 coup removes elected President Bazoum; Cold War: USSR backs Ethiopia's Derg, US backs Somalia → Ogaden War (1977-78), leaves both awash in weapons; Neocolonialism = foreign control of mining/trade profits (e.g. Zambian copper); African Union suspends coup states (e.g. Niger 2023) but has little enforcement power; UN/UNOSOM in Somalia (1992-95) — withdrew after 1993 'Black Hawk Down', state still collapsed |
Modelled exam question 1
"To what extent do you agree that internal pressures, rather than external influence, were the main cause of the move to multi-party democracy in Africa in the 1980s and 1990s?" Refer to ONE prescribed country you have studied.
🔒 Model answer plan
See the mark-by-mark plan — for / against / judgement, with marking guidance — in study mode.
Modelled exam question 2
To what extent do you agree that external involvement was the main cause of instability in modern African states, with reference to two states you have studied?
🔒 Model answer plan
See the mark-by-mark plan — for / against / judgement, with marking guidance — in study mode.
Important: Do not write 'Africa' as if it is one country with one story. Zambia's peaceful 1991 handover and Somalia's total 1991 state collapse happened in the SAME YEAR for completely different reasons. Always name the specific country, leader and date — generic claims cost marks even in a well-structured essay.
What was the Gukurahundi? Mugabe-ordered killings of an estimated 10,000-20,000 Ndebele civilians in Matabeleland, Zimbabwe (1983-87), carried out by the North Korean-trained Fifth Brigade — cleared the way for ZANU-PF to dominate after the 1987 Unity Accord folded ZAPU in.
Why did Zambia's one-party state end in 1991? Copper made up over 90% of export earnings; when copper prices crashed from the late 1970s, Kaunda's government could no longer fund the jobs/subsidies buying loyalty. Food riots (1986, 1990) plus trade union pressure forced a referendum; Chiluba's MMD then beat Kaunda in a free election, and Kaunda stepped down peacefully.
What made Ethiopia's economy grow so fast under Meles Zenawi? A 'developmental state' model (1991-2012): the government directly steered investment into roads, dams and industry — including the citizen-funded Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (started 2011) — producing growth often above 8% a year.
Why did Zimbabwe's economy collapse after 2000 despite political stability? The chaotic Fast Track Land Reform Programme seized white-owned commercial farms from 2000, disrupting agricultural production; combined with unrestrained money printing, this produced hyperinflation reaching billions of percent by 2008.
How did the Cold War fuel conflict in the Horn of Africa? In the 1970s the USSR switched support from Somalia to Ethiopia's Derg, while the US armed Somalia instead. This arms race helped fuel the Ogaden War (1977-78) and left both countries awash in weapons that circulated in later conflicts.
Why did Niger's military seize power in 2023? The military removed elected President Mohamed Bazoum, citing insecurity from Sahel jihadist violence and weak governance — critics argue it was really about the army protecting its own power and privileges.
1) Both essays reward a CLEAR thesis stated up front — don't bury your answer to 'to what extent' at the end. 2) Always weigh at least two causes against each other (e.g. internal vs external, or stability vs policy choices) rather than listing facts. 3) Use precise dates and names — Gukurahundi (1983-87), Ogaden War (1977-78), Zambia's 1991 transition — examiners reward specificity over vague generalisation.