The big idea: A population is ageing when the share of older people (65+) rises while the share of children (under-15) falls.
It usually happens because of two long-term trends
- Falling fertility - families have fewer children, so the base of the population narrows.
- Rising life expectancy - people live longer, so the top of the population widens.
Decline: If deaths start to outnumber births and immigration is low, the total population can also decline.
Key terms
- Ageing population - one in which the proportion of people aged 65+ is rising.
- Declining population - one that is shrinking in total size (deaths + emigration exceed births + immigration).
- Old-age dependency ratio - the number of people 65+ compared with every 100 of working age.
- Pension - regular income paid to retired people, often funded by today's workers' taxes.
Why it matters: An ageing society has more dependants who are no longer working and fewer workers to support them - this is what creates the social and economic pressures examiners ask about.
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Economic difficulties
- Smaller workforce - fewer working-age people means less output and a shrinking tax base.
- Higher pension costs - more retirees draw pensions for longer, straining government budgets.
- Rising healthcare spending - older people need more medical and long-term care.
Social difficulties
- Care burden on families - relatives must care for elderly parents, with less time for paid work.
- Loneliness and isolation - many elderly people live alone, raising mental-health needs.
- Pressure on services - hospitals, care homes and housing must adapt to an older society.
Ageing brings benefits too
- The silver economy — retirees with savings spend on travel, leisure and care, creating jobs.
- Experience — older workers who stay on pass on skills.
- Unpaid work — grandparents provide childcare and older people volunteer, so others can work.
- Innovation — demand for care drives new technology, such as care robots.
Case study — Japan: Close to 30% of Japan’s people are aged 65 or over, among the highest shares in the world, and the population has been falling since around 2010.
Responses: a higher pension age and incentives to keep working; care robots and automation; and, since 2019, new visas for foreign workers in sectors such as care.
Explain one economic difficulty and one social difficulty that an ageing population can create.
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Easing the pressure: Governments use policies to soften an ageing society's costs. They fall into a few groups - and different countries pick different ones depending on culture, wealth and politics.
Common strategies
- Raise the pension/retirement age - people work longer, paying tax for longer and drawing pensions for less time.
- Encourage immigration of workers - young migrants fill jobs and pay taxes, widening the workforce.
- Pro-natalist incentives - cash bonuses, childcare and parental leave to lift the birth rate.
- Automation and productivity - robots and technology offset the smaller workforce.
Suggest two reasons why different countries adopt different policies to cope with an ageing population.
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How this is tested: The ageing stimulus is usually one of three figures.
The usual figures
- A bar graph of ageing-related policies by world region.
- An age-sex chart of a greying society.
- A projection graph of dependent age groups.
The quick reads
- State, Estimate or Identify a value off the figure
The longer read
- Describe a trend
Always: Always quote the units and a number.
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Estimate the percentage of countries in Europe with a policy to raise the retirement age.
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Country X - dependent age groups, % of population (projected)
| Age group | 2020 | 2060 |
|---|---|---|
| Under-15s (young) | 13 | 10 |
| 65 and over (old) | 28 | 38 |
IB-style question - read the projection
Using the projection table: (a) state the projected share of over-65s in 2060 [1]; (b) estimate the change in the under-15 share from 2020 to 2060 [1]; (c) describe how the two dependent age groups change between 2020 and 2060 [2].
How to answer each part
- (a) State the value. Read the 65+ row, 2060 column -> 38%.
- (b) Estimate the change. Under-15s go 13% -> 10%, a fall of about 3 percentage points.
- (c) Describe with figures. The young dependants fall (13% to 10%) while the old dependants rise sharply (28% to 38%) - the population is ageing, with the elderly share growing fastest.
Final answer
(a) 38%; (b) a fall of about 3 percentage points; (c) under-15s fall (13->10%) and over-65s rise (28->38%) - a clear ageing trend.
Describe needs numbers: On a Describe part, state the direction (rises/falls) AND quote figures for each group. No causes needed - that is for Explain.
Weaknesses of a choropleth map
- Each area shows one average, hiding differences inside it.
- Colours change sharply at boundaries, though real values change gradually.
- Wide classes make very different values look the same.
“Population ageing is the most serious demographic issue facing countries today.” To what extent do you agree with this statement?
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