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NotesGeographyTopic 1.3Ageing and declining populations
Back to Geography Topics
1.3.15 min read

Ageing and declining populations

IB Geography • Unit 1

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Contents

  • What an ageing population is
  • The difficulties an ageing population creates
  • Strategies to cope - and why countries differ
  • Reading ageing data
The big idea: A population is ageing when the share of older people (65+) rises while the share of children (under-15) falls.

It usually happens because of two long-term trends:

- Falling fertility - families have fewer children, so the base of the population narrows. - Rising life expectancy - people live longer, so the top of the population widens.

If deaths start to outnumber births and immigration is low, the total population can also decline.

Key terms

  • Ageing population - one in which the proportion of people aged 65+ is rising.
  • Declining population - one that is shrinking in total size (deaths + emigration exceed births + immigration).
  • Old-age dependency ratio - the number of people 65+ compared with every 100 of working age.
  • Pension - regular income paid to retired people, often funded by today's workers' taxes.
Why it matters: An ageing society has more dependants who are no longer working and fewer workers to support them - this is what creates the social and economic pressures examiners ask about.

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Economic difficulties

  • Smaller workforce - fewer working-age people means less output and a shrinking tax base.
  • Higher pension costs - more retirees draw pensions for longer, straining government budgets.
  • Rising healthcare spending - older people need more medical and long-term care.

Social difficulties

  • Care burden on families - relatives must care for elderly parents, with less time for paid work.
  • Loneliness and isolation - many elderly people live alone, raising mental-health needs.
  • Pressure on services - hospitals, care homes and housing must adapt to an older society.
IB-style questionExplain[4 marks]

Explain one economic difficulty and one social difficulty that an ageing population can create.

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Easing the pressure: Governments use policies to soften an ageing society's costs. They fall into a few groups - and different countries pick different ones depending on culture, wealth and politics.

Common strategies

  • Raise the pension/retirement age - people work longer, paying tax for longer and drawing pensions for less time.
  • Encourage immigration of workers - young migrants fill jobs and pay taxes, widening the workforce.
  • Pro-natalist incentives - cash bonuses, childcare and parental leave to lift the birth rate.
  • Automation and productivity - robots and technology offset the smaller workforce.
IB-style questionSuggest[4 marks]

Suggest two reasons why different countries adopt different policies to cope with an ageing population.

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How this is tested: The ageing stimulus is usually a bar graph of ageing-related policies by world region, an age-sex chart of a greying society, or a projection graph of dependent age groups.

The quick reads ask you to State, Estimate or Identify a value off the figure; the longer read asks you to Describe a trend. Always quote the units and a number.

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IB-style questionEstimate[2 marks]

Estimate the percentage of countries in Europe with a policy to raise the retirement age.

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Age group20202060
Under-15s (young)1310
65 and over (old)2838

IB-style question - read the projection

Using the projection table: (a) state the projected share of over-65s in 2060 [1]; (b) estimate the change in the under-15 share from 2020 to 2060 [1]; (c) describe how the two dependent age groups change between 2020 and 2060 [2].

How to answer each part

  1. (a) State the value. Read the 65+ row, 2060 column -> 38%.
  2. (b) Estimate the change. Under-15s go 13% -> 10%, a fall of about 3 percentage points.
  3. (c) Describe with figures. The young dependants fall (13% to 10%) while the old dependants rise sharply (28% to 38%) - the population is ageing, with the elderly share growing fastest.

Final answer

(a) 38%; (b) a fall of about 3 percentage points; (c) under-15s fall (13->10%) and over-65s rise (28->38%) - a clear ageing trend.

Describe needs numbers: On a Describe part, state the direction (rises/falls) AND quote figures for each group. No causes needed - that is for Explain.

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the shape of a population pyramid for a country with a declining population. [2 marks]

Related Geography Topics

Continue learning with these related topics from the same unit:

1.1.1Population distribution and physical factors
1.1.2Economic development, fertility and the demographic dividend
1.2.1Population structure: pyramids, age and sex
1.2.2Megacities and the consequences of rapid growth
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