The big idea: As a country develops economically, two things usually happen.
Two changes
- Fertility falls — women have fewer children.
- Life expectancy rises — people live longer.
The table below shows the pattern: richer, more-developed countries have low fertility and high life expectancy.
Six countries — fertility rate and life expectancy
| Country | Fertility rate (children per woman) | Life expectancy (years) |
|---|---|---|
| Japan | 1.3 | 84 |
| Germany | 1.5 | 81 |
| Brazil | 1.6 | 76 |
| India | 2.0 | 70 |
| Kenya | 3.3 | 67 |
| Niger | 6.8 | 61 |
Classifying countries by income: The World Bank sorts every country into an income group by its GNI per person (gross national income ÷ population, in US$). The thresholds are updated every July, so learn the groups and roughly where the lines fall.
The World Bank income groups (GNI per person, rounded)
| Group | GNI per person a year | Real examples | Where they cluster |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low income (LIC) | about US$1,100 or less | Niger, Ethiopia, Afghanistan | mostly sub-Saharan Africa |
| Lower-middle income | about US$1,100 to 4,500 | India, Kenya, Nigeria, Bangladesh | South Asia, much of Africa |
| Upper-middle income | about US$4,500 to 14,000 | China, Brazil, South Africa, Mexico | Latin America, East Asia |
| High income (HIC) | more than about US$14,000 | Japan, Germany, USA, Saudi Arabia | North America, Europe, East Asia, the Gulf, Australia |
Emerging economies
- Emerging economy — a middle-income country whose economy is growing fast and industrialising, and which is becoming more powerful in world trade.
- BRICS — Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, the best-known group; it added Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran and the UAE in 2024.
- Newly industrialised countries (NICs) — earlier fast growers such as South Korea and Singapore, now high income.
Why the groups matter, and their limits
- Why they matter — the rest of the course compares LICs, MICs and HICs: fertility, energy use, emissions and vulnerability all change between groups.
- They decide money — the World Bank lends on cheaper terms to low-income countries.
- Limit: an average hides inequality — GNI per person says nothing about how income is shared; South Africa is upper-middle income with very high inequality.
- Limit: income is not well-being — the HDI adds health and education, so it can rank countries differently.
Key terms
- Fertility rate — the average number of children a woman has.
- Economic development — rising income, education, health and living standards.
- Demographic dividend — the economic boost when a large share of people are of working age (few dependants).
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The main reasons
- Female education & jobs — educated women in work tend to delay and have fewer children.
- Lower child mortality — when more children survive, families don't need to have as many.
- Cost of children — in cities, children cost more and work less, so families have fewer.
- Family planning — better access to contraception lets families choose smaller sizes.
Explain two reasons why fertility rates tend to fall as a country develops economically.
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A window of opportunity: When fertility falls, a country can get a demographic dividend: a large working-age population with relatively few dependants (children and elderly).
More workers supporting fewer dependants can boost the economy — if there are enough jobs.
Suggest two ways a large working-age population can deliver economic gains to a country.
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Develop the point: Suggest/Explain needs development — don't just say 'more workers'; say more workers → more output and taxes → economic growth.
How this is tested: Life expectancy for several countries often comes as a radial (spoke) chart — one spoke per country, with rings for the scale — rather than a bar chart.
The first marks: quick, [1] each
- Identify — read a country's value off its spoke [1].
- Estimate — give a sensible figure from the rings [1].
Before you answer: Always quote the units (years) and check the scale before you answer.
Read the scale rings first, then read each country's value along its spoke.
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Using the radial chart: (a) identify the country with the highest life expectancy [1]; (b) estimate Brazil's life expectancy [1].
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Six countries — fertility rate and life expectancy
| Country | Fertility rate (children per woman) | Life expectancy (years) |
|---|---|---|
| Japan | 1.3 | 84 |
| Germany | 1.5 | 81 |
| Brazil | 1.6 | 76 |
| India | 2.0 | 70 |
| Kenya | 3.3 | 67 |
| Niger | 6.8 | 61 |
IB-style question — read the chart
Using the table above: (a) identify the country with the lowest life expectancy [1]; (b) estimate India's life expectancy [1]; (c) describe the relationship between fertility and life expectancy [2].
How to answer each part
- (a) Identify the lowest. Scan the life-expectancy column — Niger is lowest at 61 years.
- (b) Estimate India. Read India's row → about 70 years.
- (c) Describe the relationship. It is negative/inverse: countries with high fertility (Niger 6.8) have low life expectancy (61), while low-fertility countries (Japan 1.3) have high life expectancy (84).
Final answer
(a) Niger; (b) ≈ 70 years; (c) a negative relationship — higher fertility goes with lower life expectancy.
Healthy life expectancy
- Healthy life expectancy — the number of years a person can expect to live in good health. It is always lower than life expectancy.
- The gap between the two = the years lived in poor health.
- It is lowered by chronic disease (obesity, smoking, inactivity), poverty and deprivation, pollution and cuts to health care.
- Within one country it can differ by 15-20 years between the richest and the poorest areas.
Using a table of health data for several areas, to what extent does the evidence support the view that income is the main factor influencing healthy life expectancy?
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