Diplomacy, Alliances and the Origins of the First World War (1871–1914) (History HL)

The year 1871 was a turning point for Europe. Prussia crushed France in the Franco-Prussian War and created a unified German Empire (the Second Reich) under Chancellor Otto von Bismarck. France lost the provinces of Alsace-Lorraine and was humiliated. This one event reshaped the whole balance of power on the continent.

The balance of power after 1871: Germany was now the strongest land power in Europe. Bismarck's central challenge was to keep France isolated so it could not find allies and seek revenge. He built a web of alliances designed to encircle France diplomatically while keeping Germany at the centre of European politics.

The Congress of Berlin (1878)

Tension over the Ottoman Empire (the 'sick man of Europe') and the Balkans had been growing since Russia defeated the Ottomans in the Russo-Turkish War (1877–78). The Treaty of San Stefano gave Russia enormous gains in the Balkans, alarming Britain and Austria-Hungary. Bismarck hosted a conference in Berlin to revise the settlement. The Congress of Berlin (1878) was a diplomatic triumph for Bismarck — he played the role of the 'honest broker', reduced Russian gains, and kept the peace. But it left Russia resentful.

Imperial expansion and European rivalry: From the 1880s European powers competed to colonise Africa and Asia — the 'Scramble for Africa'. This imperial rivalry fed tensions at home. The Moroccan Crises (1905 and 1911), where Germany challenged France's control of Morocco, are clear examples of how colonial competition made European diplomacy more dangerous and pushed France closer to Britain.

Kaiser Wilhelm II came to power in 1888. He was impulsive, insecure, and desperate to be respected. In 1890 he dismissed Bismarck and began charting his own course. The policy he championed was called Weltpolitik, and it made Germany's neighbours deeply nervous.

Domestic pressures on German foreign policy: Germany's rapid industrialisation created social tensions at home. A growing working class supported the Social Democratic Party (SPD), which worried the Kaiser and conservative elites. Historians such as Fritz Fischer argued that the German government used aggressive foreign policy — and ultimately war — to distract the population and unite the country behind nationalist feeling. This is sometimes called the theory of social imperialism: using external rivalry to manage internal division.

Fischer Controversy — essential for HL essays: In 1961 Fritz Fischer argued in Griff nach der Weltmacht that Germany deliberately planned the First World War as a war of aggression and expansion. This was deeply controversial. Critics argued Fischer overstated German guilt and ignored the roles of Austria-Hungary, Russia and France. For Paper 3 essays, show you know this historiographical debate and use it to nuance your argument rather than blaming one power alone.

Historians use the shorthand MAIN (Militarism, Alliances, Imperialism, Nationalism) to organise the long-term causes of the war. For Paper 3 you need to go deeper — weighing which causes mattered most and how the short-term trigger (the July Crisis of 1914) ignited the long-term powder keg.

Balkan Nationalism and the Decline of the Ottoman Empire

The Balkans were Europe's most dangerous fault line. As the Ottoman Empire weakened, new Balkan states — Serbia, Bulgaria, Romania, Greece — fought to expand. The Balkan Wars of 1912–13 saw the Ottomans almost expelled from Europe and Bulgaria, then Serbia, gain territory. Serbia emerged strengthened and full of nationalist ambition, with its eyes on Austria-Hungary's South Slav populations. Austria-Hungary viewed Serbia as an existential threat.

The Bosnian Crisis (1908): Austria-Hungary annexed Bosnia-Herzegovina, enraging Serbia (which wanted the territory) and Russia (which supported Slavic interests). Germany gave Austria-Hungary full backing, and Russia backed down. Russia was humiliated and resolved it would not back down again. This crisis showed exactly how the Alliance system could turn a regional dispute into a great-power confrontation.

The July Crisis (1914)

Relative importance of causes: Paper 3 essays often ask you to evaluate which cause was most important. The scholarly consensus today is that no single cause is sufficient. The alliance system turned a local Balkan crisis into a world war; German foreign policy (the blank cheque, the Schlieffen Plan) escalated the crisis; Balkan nationalism provided the spark; and Austria-Hungary's determination to crush Serbia kept the crisis from being resolved. Avoid one-dimensional answers that blame only one country or one cause.