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NotesMath AI HLTopic 2.9HL modelling — choosing & fitting a model
Back to Math AI HL Topics
2.9.15 min read

HL modelling — choosing & fitting a model (Math AI HL)

IB Mathematics: Applications and Interpretation · Unit 2

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Contents

  1. 1Choosing the right family of model
  2. 2Fitting the parameters and reading them in context
Match the story to the shape: Before fitting anything, look at how the quantity behaves and pick the family that matches.
FamilyWhen it fits
Straight line y = mx + cA steady, constant change (same rise per step).
Quadratic y = ax² + bx + cOne turning point (a projectile's height, a profit that peaks).
CubicTwo turning points (an up-down-up trend).
Exponential y = k·aˣ (or k·erx)A quantity that multiplies by a fixed factor each step (growth a > 1, decay 0 < a < 1).
Power y = a·xⁿScaling laws (area vs length, allometry in biology).
Logistic y = L / (1 + C·e−kx)Growth that starts fast then levels off at a ceiling L (populations, market saturation).
Sinusoidal y = a·sin(b(x − c)) + dAnything that repeats (tides, temperature over a year, daylight hours).
PiecewiseOne rule on one interval, a different rule on another (tax bands, bulk-discount pricing).
The two tell-tale questions: Does it level off at a ceiling? → logistic (S-shape), not plain exponential.

Does it repeat? → sinusoidal.

These are the two that students most often miss — an exponential keeps climbing forever, but a real population can't, so a 'fast then flattens' graph is logistic.

IB-style question — pick the model

A conservation team releases beavers into a wetland. The first few yearly counts rise quickly, but the team knows the wetland can only support a finite number.

Which function family best models the beaver population over time, and why?

Step by step

  1. Fast early rise → growth, so NOT linear and NOT a decay.
  2. A finite ceiling (carrying capacity) → it must flatten, ruling out plain exponential.
  3. An S-shaped curve that flattens at a maximum L is the logistic model.

Final answer

A logistic model y = L/(1 + C·e−kt), because the population grows fast at first then levels off at the wetland's carrying capacity L. (A plain exponential would be wrong — it never stops growing.)

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Fit, then translate every parameter into words: Once you've chosen a family, find the parameters — by hand from given conditions, or with your GDC's regression. The marks come from saying what each one means in the scenario.

What each parameter means

  • In y = k·ert: k is the starting value (t = 0) and r is the continuous growth/decay rate.
  • In the logistic y = L/(1 + C·e−kt): L is the long-run ceiling (carrying capacity), and k controls how fast it gets there.
  • In a·sin(b(t − c)) + d: a = amplitude (half the swing), d = midline (average level), period = 2π/b, c = horizontal shift.
Logistic model: L is the carrying capacity (ceiling). As t → ∞, e−kt → 0, so y → L.

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IB-style question — fit an exponential and interpret

A colony of bacteria is modelled by N(t) = k·ert, where N is the number of cells (in thousands) and t is the time in hours. At t = 0 there are 3 thousand cells; after 5 hours there are 24 thousand.

Find k and r, and state what r tells you about the colony.

Step by step

  1. At t = 0: N = k·e⁰ = k, so k is the starting value.
  2. At t = 5: 24 = 3·e5r, so e5r = 8.
  3. Take ln of both sides and solve.
  4. r > 0 means continuous growth at about 41.6% per hour.

Final answer

k = 3 (the colony starts at 3 thousand cells) and r ≈ 0.416. Since r > 0, the colony is growing, at a continuous rate of about 41.6% per hour.

IB-style question — read the logistic ceiling

A fish population in a new reservoir is modelled by P(t) = 8000/(1 + 15·e−0.5t), where t is in years.

State the long-term population the model predicts, and find the initial population.

Step by step

  1. Long-term: as t → ∞, e−0.5t → 0, so the denominator → 1.
  2. Initial: put t = 0, so e⁰ = 1.

Final answer

Long-term (carrying capacity) L = 8000 fish; the reservoir is stocked with 500 fish initially.

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A town's population is modelled by P(t) = 12· thousand, where t is years after 2020. the population in 2020 and the continuous growth rate, and the rate. [2 marks]

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