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NotesMath AATopic 4.10
Unit 4 · Statistics & Probability · Topic 4.10

IB Math AA — Regression & prediction

Topic 4.10 of IB Mathematics: Analysis and Approaches covers Regression & prediction, which is part of Unit 4: Statistics & Probability. Students explore key concepts including Prediction. A strong understanding of regression & prediction is essential for IB Math AA exams and builds the foundation for connected topics across the syllabus.

Exam technique guidePractice questions

Key concepts in Regression & prediction

Key Idea: This topic is about choosing a fair sample and judging how trustworthy it is. Exam parts ask you to name the sampling method, do a quick calculation, or explain why a sample is biased — all non-calculator (Paper 1).

👥 Population, sample & why we sample

TermWhat it means
PopulationEvery individual the study is about (the whole group).
SampleThe smaller part you actually measure.
CensusData from the whole population.
Why sample?It's cheaper, faster, or the test is destructive (quote one for a 'give a reason' part).
Important: A sample is reliable only when it represents the whole population. A biased sample over- or under-represents part of it. A bigger sample helps — but a large unfair sample is still biased.

🎯 The five sampling techniques

TechniqueHow it worksMain drawback
Simple randomEvery member is equally likely (draw lots / random numbers).Needs a full list; can miss small groups by chance.
SystematicOrder the list, random start, then take every k-th member.Biased if the list has a hidden pattern matching k.
StratifiedSplit into groups, sample each in proportion to its size.You must know each group's size in advance.
QuotaFill fixed numbers per group, but pick members non-randomly.Selection isn't random → easily biased.
ConvenienceTake whoever is easiest / first available.Usually unrepresentative → most biased of all.
k=Nnk = \frac{N}{n}k=nN​
NNN
population size
nnn
sample size
kkk
systematic interval — take every k-th member
number from a group=group sizeN×n\text{number from a group} = \frac{\text{group size}}{N} \times nnumber from a group=Ngroup size​×n
NNN
population size
nnn
total sample size

✏️ IB-style worked examples

IB-style question — systematic sampling interval

A gym has 900 members. A sample of 60 is taken systematically. Find the sampling interval and describe how to choose the sample.

Step by step:

  1. Interval = population ÷ sample size.

    k=90060=15k = \frac{900}{60} = 15k=60900​=15
  2. Random start, then step by k.

    random start 1–15, then every 15th\text{random start } 1\text{–}15,\ \text{then every } 15\text{th}random start 1–15, then every 15th
Final answer:

k = 15: pick a random start from the first 15, then take every 15th member.

IB-style question — stratified sample size

A college has 700 day students and 300 evening students (1000 total). A stratified sample of 50 is taken. Find how many day students should be in the sample.

Step by step:

  1. Group proportion × sample size.

    7001000×50\frac{700}{1000} \times 501000700​×50
  2. Evaluate.

    =0.7×50=35= 0.7 \times 50 = 35=0.7×50=35
Final answer:

35 day students (and so 15 evening students — they total 50).

Important: For systematic sampling the interval is k = N ÷ n, not n itself. With 900 members and a sample of 60, k = 15, not 60. And always check stratified shares sum to n.

Tap each card to reveal the answer.

What is the population in a study? The whole group the study is about — not just those measured.

Give one reason to sample instead of a census It's cheaper, faster, or the test is destructive (any one).

Systematic interval for N = 800, n = 50 k = 16 — that's 800 ÷ 50.

Stratified share of a 60-strong group when N = 1000, n = 50 3 — (60 ÷ 1000) × 50 = 3.

Which two methods are most likely biased? Quota and convenience — selection isn't random.

Why isn't a huge sample automatically reliable? A large unfair sample is still biased — it must also be representative.

Exam Tips

  • Name the population as the WHOLE group the question is about, not just those measured.
  • For 'why sample?': say cheaper, faster, or the test destroys the item.
  • Systematic interval is k = N ÷ n; stratified share = (group ÷ N) × n — check shares total n.
  • Quota and convenience are the usual answers when asked which method is biased.
  • For 'why unreliable?': name the group that is over- or under-represented.

What you'll learn in Topic 4.10

  • 4.10.1 Prediction
Suggested study order: Read the notes for each sub-topic below → test yourself with flashcards → attempt practice questions → review exam technique.

Study resources — 4.10 Regression & prediction

4.10.1

Prediction

Notes

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Topic 4.10 Regression & prediction forms a core part of Unit 4: Statistics & Probability in IB Math AA. Mastering these concepts will strengthen your understanding of connected topics across the syllabus and prepare you for exam questions that require analysis, evaluation, and real-world application.

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