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NotesESSTopic 8.1Managing growth indirectly
Back to ESS Topics
8.1.68 min read

Managing growth indirectly

IB Environmental Systems and Societies • Unit 8

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Contents

  • Managing growth indirectly
  • Education and the status of women
  • Health care and family planning
  • Money, work and welfare
  • Choices or resources?
  • Exam-style question
Managing growth without a population law: An indirect policy is not about births at all, yet it changes them. Schools, clinics, jobs and pensions change how many children people choose to have, how long they live and where they move.

The points to remember

  • An indirect policy has another main aim (schools, clinics, jobs) but also changes births, deaths or migration.
  • The main kinds: gender equality, education, public health, welfare and economic development.
  • Most of them lower the birth rate; health care also lowers the death rate.
  • Jobs and development change migration: jobs pull people in, a lack of them pushes people out.
  • A direct policy aims straight at births: a limit on family size, or a bonus for each baby.
Remember it as: Teach girls, heal children, pay pensions: births fall by choice.

Direct

  • Aims straight at births
  • China, 1980: one child per couple
  • Fast, but can be forced

Indirect

  • Aims at schools, health, jobs
  • Kerala: girls' schools and clinics
  • Slower, but chosen

Real example: the Indian state of Kerala stayed fairly poor, yet its fertility rate fell below replacement level in the late 1980s, with no law on family size. Tap each circle to see why.

Girls' school

  • Kerala sent almost all its girls to school; about 92% of women can read.

Health care

  • Village health centres and vaccination: fewer than 5 in 1000 babies die.

Jobs abroad

  • About 2 million people from Kerala work abroad, mostly in the Gulf states.

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Of all indirect policies, educating girls and raising the status of women lower the birth rate the most. It is often called the most effective long-term strategy.

The points to remember

  • Girls who stay in school marry later and have their first child later, so they have fewer children.
  • Educated women know about and use contraception and family planning.
  • Women with jobs and careers delay children or choose fewer: a child costs them time and income.
  • A higher status of women (equal rights, emancipation) means women decide how many children to have.
  • Say education of women, or sex education. 'More education lowers fertility' alone is too vague.
Table. Women who can read: Kerala 92%, Bihar 52%, India 66%. Children per woman: Kerala 1.8, Bihar 3.0, India 2.0. Infant deaths per 1000 births: Kerala 4, Bihar 47, India 35
Where more women can read, women have fewer children.

Real example: in Kerala about 92% of women can read and women have about 1.8 children each. In Bihar, a much poorer state where only about half of women can read, they have about 3.0. Many girls in Bihar still marry in their teens.

Two traps: Write 'the education of women' or 'sex education', never just 'more education lowers fertility'.

A list of words (education, jobs, empowerment) earns little. Link each one to fewer births: 'women stay in school longer, so they marry later and have fewer children'.

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Better health care lowers the death rate first. Then, as child mortality falls and family planning spreads, the birth rate falls too.

The points to remember

  • Health care, vaccination, clean water, sanitation and better food cut the death rate.
  • When fewer children die, parents need fewer births to be sure some children survive.
  • Family planning clinics give contraception, advice and sex education, so fewer births are unplanned.
  • Health workers in villages bring these services to people who cannot reach a hospital.
  • Deaths fall first, births later, so the population grows fast for a while.
Table for Ethiopia. Married women using contraception: 8% in 2000, 15% in 2005, 29% in 2011, 36% in 2016, 41% in 2019. Children per woman: 5.5, 5.4, 4.8, 4.6, 4.1
As contraception spread, the number of children per woman fell.

Real example: from 2003 Ethiopia's Health Extension Programme trained about 38,000 women as paid health workers, two for each village area. They vaccinate children, treat diarrhoea and malaria, and offer contraception. Child deaths about halved between 2000 and 2019, and women went from about 7 children each around 1990 to about 4 by 2019.

Name the rate: Health care cuts the death rate first; female education cuts the birth rate. Say which rate each policy changes.

Money matters too. As a country grows richer, children cost more and bring in less, and pensions take the place of a large family in old age.

The points to remember

  • The cost of raising and educating children rises, so parents choose fewer.
  • With urbanisation and machines on farms, children stop being workers and become a cost.
  • Pensions and care for the old mean parents no longer need many children to support them in old age.
  • Economic stability cuts the need for children as workers; a recession delays births.
  • Jobs pull migrants in; a lack of jobs pushes people to emigrate.
  • Long working hours, costly housing and late marriage push the birth rate very low.
Bar chart of children per woman in Japan: 3.65 in 1950, 1.91 in 1975, 1.26 in 2005 and 1.20 in 2023
Japan has been below replacement level since the 1970s.

Real example: in Japan raising and educating a child costs a lot, working hours are long, and women have their first child at about 31. Strong pensions mean nobody needs a big family for old age. Women have about 1.2 children each.

Not credited: 'Low income from farming means they cannot afford many children' is not credited: in farming families children are often extra workers. Give the cost of raising children in a rich, urban society instead.

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Are people's numbers set by their choices or by the resources around them? It depends on how developed a society is.

The points to remember

  • Social: the role of women, age at marriage. Cultural: religion and family size norms.
  • Political: population policies, wars. Economic: tax incentives, the cost of children, jobs.
  • Resources: food, water, energy. A shortage raises deaths (famine) and pushes people to move.
  • In the later stages of the demographic transition, births are set mainly by social and economic choices.
  • In the early stages, resources can still limit a population: famine, drought, disease.
  • Technology and trade (importing food) raise the limits that resources set.
The demographic transition model: birth and death rates over five stages, with the total population line rising through stages 2 to 4
Stages 1 and 2: resources such as food and clean water can still limit numbers. Stages 4 and 5: births are set by choices.

Resources limit

  • Somalia, 2011: drought and famine
  • About 260,000 people died
  • Half were children under five

Choices limit

  • Japan: plenty of food
  • Imports most of its food
  • Yet only 1.2 children per woman

Real example: in Somalia in 2011, drought, war and high food prices caused a famine: about 260,000 people died, half of them children under five. Resources limited that population. Japan has food to spare, but its numbers fall because people choose small families.

For a [9] essay: Give both sides with named places: social, cultural, political and economic factors (Japan, Kerala, China) and resources (a famine, a drought). Conclude: in the later stages choices dominate; only early-stage populations are still limited by food and water.
How this comes up: Paper 1: a table of birth, death and fertility rates and an age-sex pyramid, then 'Describe three socio-economic factors' [3].
Table. Arnland: fertility rate 1.45, birth rate 7.6, death rate 10.4. Kessaly region: fertility rate 1.21, birth rate 6.0, death rate 12.8
Figure 1(a)

Read the table first, then the pyramid: how big is each age group?

Age-sex pyramid for the Kessaly region in thousands: narrow at the base, widest at ages 35 to 44, with many people over 80
Figure 1(b)
IB-style questionDescribe[3 marks]

Kessaly is a made-up region of a rich, made-up country, Arnland. Figure 1(a) gives its fertility, birth and death rates, and Figure 1(b) its age-sex pyramid.

Describe three socio-economic factors which may have led to the Kessaly region's low fertility rate.

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China's one-child policy (from 1980) and Kerala's investment in girls' schools and health care both lowered birth rates.

between a direct and an indirect way of managing population growth, using these two examples.
[2 marks]

Related ESS Topics

Continue learning with these related topics from the same unit:

8.1.1Inputs: births and immigration
8.1.2Outputs: deaths and emigration
8.1.3Measuring population change
8.1.4Global population growth and projections
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