Behind the 50%: In 2.1.6 Lena found that three of her six night bakers left Mill Lane in a year: a labour turnover of 50%, against 10% for her counter staff and about 20% for bakeries in the town.
That tells her there is a problem, and where. It does not yet tell her what to do on Monday. For that, the figure has to be taken apart.
The Mill Lane figure, checked
The right average
Six night bakers at the start of the year and six at the end, because every leaver was replaced: (6 + 6) divided by 2 = 6.
The rate
3 leavers divided by 6, times 100 = 50%. One night baker in every two left within the year.
The trend
The year before, when the bakers still baked in the shops, it was 16.7% (1 of 6). The rate has tripled, so something changed this year.
The benchmarks
Two and a half times the town's 20%, five times the counter staff's 10%. The problem is the night shift, not the company.
Now the question 2.1.6 did not need to ask: when did people leave? Lena checks their start dates. Two of the three left within their first three months. The night shift is not wearing people down over years; it is losing new bakers before they have settled in.
| Main reason given (exit interviews) | Leavers | What it points to |
|---|---|---|
| The nights themselves | 1 | Hours and rotas: a problem appraisal cannot fix |
| Feedback that was only ever criticism | 1 | How new bakers are supported and managed |
| Goldcrust's day shifts at $1 an hour more | 1 | Pay and hours together: a pull from outside |
How far can 50% be trusted?: In a team of six, one leaver moves the rate by almost 17 percentage points. Had one of the three stayed, the rate would be 33%; had one more gone, 67%.
Three leavers are too few to prove a pattern, and the reasons are what people chose to say on their way out. A strong answer says so.
Put together, the evidence gives Lena a sharper diagnosis than the rate alone: the problem is the night shift, it strikes in the first three months, and two of the three reasons are the nights and being left without real feedback, not pay. Every good response starts from that sentence.
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Marco's next idea is to read the leavers' appraisal records. There are almost none. Night bakers are reviewed once a year, and two of the three had gone within three months, long before their first review.
Counting the gone, hearing the still here: Labour turnover counts people after they have left. Appraisal can hear from people while they are still here, and that is when a problem can still be fixed.
The four types of appraisal are the ones from 2.1.4. The question now is which one fits this problem.
| Type of appraisal (2.1.4) | What it could tell Lena about Mill Lane | Its limit here |
|---|---|---|
| Formative (ongoing, to improve) | A check-in with each new baker every month spots the one struggling in the first weeks, before they quit | Needs Priti's time at night, and feedback that encourages as well as corrects |
| Summative (a formal yearly review) | A fair record for pay rises and a senior night baker post, for the bakers who see no way up | Once a year is too late: two of the three were gone within three months |
| 360-degree feedback (from all around) | Priti's yearly 360-degree review (2.1.4) could ask the new starters too: how her feedback lands with someone new | Costly and slow, and in a team of six people fear being recognised |
| Self-appraisal (staff rate themselves) | Each baker says what gets in the way, such as sleep or childcare, before a manager has to guess | People may rate themselves kindly, or hide that they are thinking of leaving |
Match the appraisal to the reason people leave: Leaving early and 'nobody told me how I was doing' point to formative appraisal: regular feedback from the first week.
Complaints about how the shift is run point to 360-degree feedback on whoever runs it. A lack of progression points to summative appraisal linked to pay and promotion.
Appraisal finds and prevents part of the problem; it does not change the nights. One of the three left because of the night work itself, and one for Goldcrust's day shifts. No conversation with a head baker turns a night shift into a day shift. That part of the diagnosis needs a different response.
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Two proposals on Lena's desk: Marco wants the night premium from 2.1.6: $1 an hour extra for Priti and every night baker, matching Goldcrust's day rate.
Priti, the head baker, wants formative appraisal for new starters: a check-in every month for their first three months, with a short self-appraisal form before each one. One leaver said her feedback was only ever criticism, and she wants to hear that sooner.
| Yearly cost | Where the number comes from | |
|---|---|---|
| Labour turnover now | $7,500 | 3 leavers at about $2,500 each (2.1.6) |
| Option 1: night premium | about $14,000 | $1 an hour for every hour Priti and her six bakers work at night (2.1.6) |
| Option 2: appraisal package | about $3,500 | Priti's paid time for the monthly check-ins, and the forms |
Night premium
- Speaks to the nights and to Goldcrust's pull: two of the three leavers
- Makes the job advert easier to fill
- Costs nearly twice what turnover costs now, every year, and is hard to take back
- Does nothing for the new baker who heard only criticism
Appraisal package
- Aimed at the early leavers: two of the three went within three months
- Cheap: keeping just two bakers a year saves $5,000 for $3,500
- Monthly check-ins show Priti how her corrections land with someone new
- Does not make the nights any easier for the bakers who hate them
Change the rota
- Two nights off together each week, as in Lena's plan in 2.1.6
- Goes straight at the nights, one of the three reasons given
- Needs careful planning with six bakers, and the bread still has to be baked at night
From figure to recommendation: Diagnose first: where, when and why people leave. Then match each response to a reason, and cost it against what turnover already costs.
Finish with a target and a check: which figure, by when. That turns a recommendation into a plan.
Lena takes Priti's package and the new rota now, and holds the premium back. The target: night-shift turnover at or below the town's 20%, which for six bakers means one leaver a year at most instead of three, checked every three months as in 2.1.6. If the rate stays high and leavers still name the nights or Goldcrust, the premium comes next, and she will know it is being spent on the right problem.
How this comes up: In the case material, labour turnover usually arrives as evidence: a rate that rose after a change, a table showing it heading above the industry average, or skilled staff leaving.
The short parts ask you to calculate it from staff numbers, showing your working, and to comment on the result. The long part asks you to recommend or discuss what the business should do, and the figure is your evidence.
The recommendation pattern
- Diagnose from the data. Where, when and why people leave: the night shift, the first three months, the nights and a lack of real feedback.
- Argue each option both ways. What it fixes and what it misses, with a figure from the case in each argument.
- Cost it against turnover. $14,000 or $3,500 a year, set against the $7,500 turnover already costs.
- Decide, and say what the data cannot show. Choose one option, give a condition or a check, and name a limitation such as three leavers in a team of six being a tiny sample.
The trap: pay as the reflex answer: High turnover, so pay more: it sounds sensible and skips the evidence. Only one of the three leavers went for Goldcrust's pay.
An answer that argues one option and ignores the other, or never uses the numbers, stays in the middle marks however well written it is.
Using the information above, recommend whether Lena's Bakery Ltd should choose Option 1 or Option 2 to reduce labour turnover on its Mill Lane night shift.
Model answer plan
See the mark-by-mark plan — for / against / judgement, with marking guidance — in study mode.