IB Math AI HL · 2021 to 2025
4.5 Trial and outcome
14 past paper questions from 10 papers across 6 exam sessions. See what repeats, then practise the same skills with AI marking.
Original Exam Vault questions with AI markscheme feedback for this topic.
HL archive · 2022 to 2026
4.5 Trial and outcome
Latest exam session: May 2026
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Micro-topics in 4.5 Trial and outcome
In syllabus order. The ring is the share of papers each appears in.
- Less common
last May 25 P2 TZ1
- Occasional
last May 26 P2 TZ2
Exam pattern
How often each micro-topic has been examined, year by year. Each label is explained under the grid.
Does it repeat?
Questions per year for each micro-topic.
fewermore
| Micro-topic | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ·Tables and experimental probability, 2021: 0 questions | 1Tables and experimental probability, 2022: 1 question | 1Tables and experimental probability, 2023: 1 question | 1Tables and experimental probability, 2024: 1 question | ·Tables and experimental probability, 2025: 0 questions | 4Tables and experimental probability, 2026: 4 questions | |
| ·Sample space and probability, 2021: 0 questions | ·Sample space and probability, 2022: 0 questions | 4Sample space and probability, 2023: 4 questions | 2Sample space and probability, 2024: 2 questions | 1Sample space and probability, 2025: 1 question | ·Sample space and probability, 2026: 0 questions |
- Occasionalin about one paper in ten
- Less commonin fewer than one paper in fifteen
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Questions on 4.5 Trial and outcome, by exam session
Which papers asked about 4.5 Trial and outcome, and which question numbers. Open a paper to see them highlighted.
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Frequently asked questions
Short answers about this page.
Which Math AI HL exam sessions are covered for 4.5 Trial and outcome?
12 exam sessions from 2022 to 2026, the latest May 2026. Every Paper 1, 2 and 3 in every timezone is read and classified in full, which gives 10 papers in this archive.
Which 4.5 Trial and outcome topic comes up most?
Tables and experimental probability (4.5.2): in 11% of papers, last seen May 26 P2 TZ2. Usually "Write down", worth about 1.3 marks in a paper that includes it.
Can I see the original question and mark scheme?
No. The wording belongs to the IB. You get the citation, the marks, the command term and the skill tested, plus our own matched practice questions with worked answers and AI marking.
What do "banker", "due" and "rising" mean?
Banker: examined in at least one sitting in four and still appearing. Due: regular before, but absent for the last two exam sessions. Rising: clearly more common in the last two years. Our classification of real papers, not an IB statistic.
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