IB Math AI HL · 2021 to 2025
Unit 4: Statistics & Probability
509 past paper questions from 50 papers across 11 exam sessions. See what repeats, then practise the same skills with AI marking.
Starter set across the most-tested skills, with AI marking and model answers.
HL archive · 2021 to 2026
Unit 4: Statistics & Probability
Latest exam session: May 2026
- questions
- 509
- questions
- papers
- 50
- papers
- exam sessions
- 11
- exam sessions
- micro-topics
- 28
Topics in Unit 4: Statistics & Probability
In syllabus order. The ring is the share of the marks each one carries.
4.1
Introduction to statistics
0% of marks6 of the 1464 marks across the 54 Math AI HL papers analysed (0%) were on this topic. A past-paper pattern, not a guarantee for your next paper. · 3 questions
4.2
Presentation of data
1% of marks15 of the 1464 marks across the 54 Math AI HL papers analysed (1%) were on this topic. A past-paper pattern, not a guarantee for your next paper. · 6 questions
4.3
Mean, median, and mode
1% of marks16 of the 1464 marks across the 54 Math AI HL papers analysed (1%) were on this topic. A past-paper pattern, not a guarantee for your next paper. · 7 questions
4.4
Correlation of data
5% of marks68 of the 1464 marks across the 54 Math AI HL papers analysed (5%) were on this topic. A past-paper pattern, not a guarantee for your next paper. · 26 questions
4.5
Trial and outcome
0% of marks5 of the 1464 marks across the 54 Math AI HL papers analysed (0%) were on this topic. A past-paper pattern, not a guarantee for your next paper. · 3 questions
4.6
Venn diagrams
2% of marks32 of the 1464 marks across the 54 Math AI HL papers analysed (2%) were on this topic. A past-paper pattern, not a guarantee for your next paper. · 16 questions
4.7
Discrete random variables
4% of marks61 of the 1464 marks across the 54 Math AI HL papers analysed (4%) were on this topic. A past-paper pattern, not a guarantee for your next paper. · 19 questions
4.8
Binomial distribution
9% of marks131 of the 1464 marks across the 54 Math AI HL papers analysed (9%) were on this topic. A past-paper pattern, not a guarantee for your next paper. · 42 questions
4.9
Normal distribution
5% of marks72 of the 1464 marks across the 54 Math AI HL papers analysed (5%) were on this topic. A past-paper pattern, not a guarantee for your next paper. · 31 questions
4.10
Spearman rank correlation coefficient
6% of marks89 of the 1464 marks across the 54 Math AI HL papers analysed (6%) were on this topic. A past-paper pattern, not a guarantee for your next paper. · 29 questions
4.11
Expected, observed, hypotheses, chi-squared, goodness of fit, and t-test
12% of marks177 of the 1464 marks across the 54 Math AI HL papers analysed (12%) were on this topic. A past-paper pattern, not a guarantee for your next paper. · 65 questions
4.12
Data collection & validity (HL only)
0% of marks1 of the 1464 marks across the 54 Math AI HL papers analysed (0%) were on this topic. A past-paper pattern, not a guarantee for your next paper. · 1 question
4.13
Non-linear regression (HL only)
4% of marks60 of the 1464 marks across the 54 Math AI HL papers analysed (4%) were on this topic. A past-paper pattern, not a guarantee for your next paper. · 24 questions
4.14
E(X), Var(X) & estimators (HL only)
5% of marks72 of the 1464 marks across the 54 Math AI HL papers analysed (5%) were on this topic. A past-paper pattern, not a guarantee for your next paper. · 20 questions
4.15
Central limit theorem (HL only)
0% of marks6 of the 1464 marks across the 54 Math AI HL papers analysed (0%) were on this topic. A past-paper pattern, not a guarantee for your next paper. · 2 questions
4.16
Confidence intervals (HL only)
2% of marks32 of the 1464 marks across the 54 Math AI HL papers analysed (2%) were on this topic. A past-paper pattern, not a guarantee for your next paper. · 16 questions
4.17
Poisson distribution (HL only)
9% of marks126 of the 1464 marks across the 54 Math AI HL papers analysed (9%) were on this topic. A past-paper pattern, not a guarantee for your next paper. · 41 questions
4.18
t & z tests, errors (HL only)
17% of marks248 of the 1464 marks across the 54 Math AI HL papers analysed (17%) were on this topic. A past-paper pattern, not a guarantee for your next paper. · 82 questions
- Risingt-tests and z-tests
4.19
Markov chains (HL only)
17% of marks247 of the 1464 marks across the 54 Math AI HL papers analysed (17%) were on this topic. A past-paper pattern, not a guarantee for your next paper. · 76 questions
Exam pattern
How often each micro-topic has been examined, year by year. Each label is explained under the grid.
Does it repeat?
Top 4 of 28 micro-topics for the next sitting. Numbers are questions per year.
fewermore
| Micro-topic | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
4.19.1Transition matrices | 19Transition matrices, 2021: 19 questions | 12Transition matrices, 2022: 12 questions | 10Transition matrices, 2023: 10 questions | 14Transition matrices, 2024: 14 questions | 19Transition matrices, 2025: 19 questions | 2Transition matrices, 2026: 2 questions |
| 8t-tests and z-tests, 2021: 8 questions | 8t-tests and z-tests, 2022: 8 questions | 17t-tests and z-tests, 2023: 17 questions | 9t-tests and z-tests, 2024: 9 questions | 17t-tests and z-tests, 2025: 17 questions | 2t-tests and z-tests, 2026: 2 questions | |
4.17.1Poisson distribution | 10Poisson distribution, 2021: 10 questions | ·Poisson distribution, 2022: 0 questions | 16Poisson distribution, 2023: 16 questions | 6Poisson distribution, 2024: 6 questions | 7Poisson distribution, 2025: 7 questions | 2Poisson distribution, 2026: 2 questions |
| 10Binomial Calculations, 2021: 10 questions | 10Binomial Calculations, 2022: 10 questions | 15Binomial Calculations, 2023: 15 questions | 2Binomial Calculations, 2024: 2 questions | 4Binomial Calculations, 2025: 4 questions | ·Binomial Calculations, 2026: 0 questions |
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- Risingappearing more often in the last two years than before
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Questions on Unit 4: Statistics & Probability, by exam session
Which papers asked about Unit 4: Statistics & Probability, and which question numbers. Open a paper to see them highlighted.
May 2026
7 questions across 3 papers
May 2025
18 questions across 8 papers
November 2024
5 questions across 3 papers
May 2024
15 questions across 6 papers
November 2023
6 questions across 3 papers
May 2023
28 questions across 8 papers
November 2022
7 questions across 3 papers
May 2022
13 questions across 5 papers
November 2021
5 questions across 2 papers
May 2021
16 questions across 6 papers
Specimen 2021
10 questions across 3 papers
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Frequently asked questions
Short answers about this page.
Which Math AI HL exam sessions are covered for Unit 4: Statistics & Probability?
11 exam sessions from 2021 to 2026, the latest May 2026. Every Paper 1, 2 and 3 in every timezone is read and classified in full, which gives 50 papers in this archive.
Which Unit 4: Statistics & Probability topic comes up most?
Transition matrices (4.19.1): in 30% of papers, last seen May 26 P1 TZB. Usually "write down / state", worth about 15.4 marks in a paper that includes it.
Can I see the original question and mark scheme?
No. The wording belongs to the IB. You get the citation, the marks, the command term and the skill tested, plus our own matched practice questions with worked answers and AI marking.
What do "banker", "due" and "rising" mean?
Banker: examined in at least one sitting in four and still appearing. Due: regular before, but absent for the last two exam sessions. Rising: clearly more common in the last two years. Our classification of real papers, not an IB statistic.
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