IB Math AI HL Paper 3 Predicted Questions 2026
The extended-investigation themes most likely to anchor the 2026 Paper 3 — backed by frequency analysis across past sessions. Paper 3 is two long investigation questions, HL only, with the GDC required throughout.
Stop hoping the right investigation comes up.
Know exactly which models to drill — and how to build them.
Paper 3 lives or dies on a handful of recurring investigations: statistical tests (t-test, correlation, regression, Kendall's tau), differential equations with Euler's method, and graph theory with Markov chains. We walk you through each long-question structure step by step so you can build the model under exam conditions.
- High-frequency investigation walkthroughs: statistical tests, differential equations and Euler's method, graph theory and Markov chains.
- Paper 3 long-question drills with the GDC required — the exact extended-response method tested on exam day.
- Coupled differential equations and phase portraits broken into mark-scoring steps, not theory dumps.
- Optimisation and Voronoi diagram investigations practised as full multi-part modelling questions.
Most likely Paper 1 focus areas
Based on frequency analysis across all past HL Paper 3 sessions
- 1Statistical tests investigation — t-test, correlation, regression and Kendall's tau (4.18) — by far the most frequent Paper 3 theme, appearing 56 times
- 2Differential equations and Euler's method modelling (5.14) — a recurring long-question anchor, appeared 35 times
- 3Graph theory and Markov chains (4.19) — extended modelling with transition matrices and steady states, appeared 24 times
- 4Coupled differential equations and phase portraits (5.17) — a signature HL Paper 3 investigation, appeared 21 times
- 5Optimisation modelling (5.7) — building and solving a constrained model end to end, appeared 16 times
- 6Voronoi diagrams (3.6) — the nearest-site and toxic-waste-dump investigation type, appeared 14 times
How to use these predictions
- 1Prioritise the statistical tests investigation first — at 56 appearances it is the single most likely Paper 3 anchor, so know t-test, correlation, regression and Kendall's tau cold.
- 2Drill differential equations and Euler's method next — practise running the iteration on your GDC, since Paper 3 questions chain many steps off it.
- 3Treat coupled differential equations, phase portraits and Markov chains as full investigations — rehearse the whole multi-part flow, not isolated formulas.
- 4Time yourself on a complete two-question paper with the GDC, so the extended-response format and reasoning marks feel familiar on exam day.
Ready to walk in confident on Math AI HL Paper 3?
Turn these predicted investigation themes into practised, mark-scoring method. The crash course takes you through every high-frequency Paper 3 model — statistical tests, differential equations, graph theory and more — with the GDC required, exactly as the exam tests them.
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