Brightmart is still waiting: Back in 4.5.3, Brightmart offered to sell Lena's loaves in its four supermarkets in town: 400 a day, paying $2.25 each and selling them at $3. Lena called it the hard one and left it open.
Now Brightmart wants an answer. Marco has written a SWOT for the offer, as in 6.1.1. Lena reads it and asks: so, yes or no?
That question is the whole point. A SWOT sorts the facts into four boxes. A recommendation answers the question the business is asking: one clear choice, the reasons for it, and what has to be true for it to work.
| Marco's SWOT for the Brightmart offer | What the case says |
|---|---|
| Strengths (inside the bakery, helping) | Shoppers in Marco's survey scored Lena's bread 8 out of 10, and the supermarket's own loaf 4. |
| Weaknesses (inside, holding it back) | One oven at Mill Lane. The 1,450 loaves a night already finish at 4.55, five minutes before the vans leave. |
| Opportunities (outside, helping) | Brightmart sells 45% of the town's bread. 400 loaves at $2.25 is $900 a day of new sales. |
| Threats (outside, holding it back) | Her $3 loaf would sit next to Brightmart's $1.20 loaf. Her own shop customers could buy it there instead. |
Read the four boxes again. Every line is true, and none of them says yes or no.
In 6.1.2 you matched the boxes to find options. Now the job is to choose one. The strengths and opportunities make the case for the deal; the weaknesses and threats make the case against. A recommendation weighs the two and decides.
The decision
- One clear answer to the question asked
- Accept Brightmart's offer, or turn it down
- Never just 'it depends'
The reasons
- The SWOT points that tip the balance, each with a figure from the case
- The strongest point against, and why it does not win
The conditions
- What must be done or be true for the choice to work
- The fact the case does not give that could change the answer
Evidence, then verdict: The SWOT is the evidence. The recommendation is the verdict. A page of evidence with no verdict has not answered the question.
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"Lena's has a strong brand" is a fair SWOT point. In an answer it does nothing yet: it could be about any bakery, and it does not say what it means for the Brightmart deal.
A point becomes an argument when it carries three more things: the evidence from the case, the effect on the business, and the link to the decision.
One point, built into an argument
The point
Brightmart is an opportunity to reach shoppers who never pass Lena's four shops.
The evidence
Brightmart sells 45% of the town's bread. It wants 400 loaves a day at $2.25: $900 a day of new sales.
The effect on the business
A loaf uses about $0.90 of ingredients, so each leaves $1.35. 400 × $1.35 = $540 a day, $3,780 a week.
The link to the decision
That is money her own shops cannot reach, so it is the strongest reason to say yes.
The case against is built the same way. Take the weakness, the single oven.
The point: Mill Lane may not be able to bake the extra loaves. The evidence: one oven bakes 600 loaves an hour, and the night's 1,450 loaves finish at 4.55. The effect: 400 more loaves need 40 more minutes of oven time (400 ÷ 600 × 60), so the vans would leave late. The link: the deal cannot start until Lena buys the $45,000 deck oven she has been planning.
| A line that lists | A line that argues |
|---|---|
| Strength: good brand. | Shoppers score Lena's bread 8 out of 10 against 4 for the supermarket's loaf, so it can sell at $3 on Brightmart's shelves. |
| Threat: competition. | Her $3 loaf would sit next to a $1.20 one. Shoppers who compare only prices see one loaf at 2.5 times the other. |
| Weakness: capacity. | 400 more loaves add 40 minutes to a night that ends five minutes before the vans leave. |
The four-box copy: A SWOT that only copies the case into four boxes is a description. It shows you have read the case, not that you can use it.
Every point you use needs its effect on this business and its link to this decision.
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Both sides are now on the page. Weighing means asking which points are the biggest, which can be fixed, and which are still unknown.
For accepting
- The money. $540 a day, $3,780 a week: $196,560 over 52 weeks.
- The reach. Brightmart's shoppers buy 45% of the town's bread.
- The quality. Bread scored 8 out of 10 can hold its $3 price next to a cheaper loaf.
Against accepting
- The oven. The night is full; the deal needs the $45,000 deck oven first.
- Her own customers. Each of the 400 loaves bought by one of her own shop customers loses the $2.10 that shop loaf left.
- One big buyer. Brightmart could push the price down later, or drop the loaf.
The oven is a problem with a price: $540 a day repays $45,000 in about 83 days, 12 weeks. That point can be fixed.
Her own customers switching is harder, because nobody knows how many there will be. So put a number on it. Every loaf Brightmart sells to a new customer adds $1.35. Every loaf it sells to someone who would have bought at Lena's shop loses the $2.10 that shop loaf would have left.
| Of the 400 loaves a day, bought by Lena's own shop customers | What the deal adds a day |
|---|---|
| None | 400 × $1.35 = $540 |
| 100 | $540 − 100 × $2.10 = $330 |
| 200 | $540 − 200 × $2.10 = $120 |
| More than about 257 | Nothing: the deal loses money |
Lena's recommendation: Lena's Bakery Ltd should accept Brightmart's offer, on two conditions. The deal adds up to $540 a day, and bread that shoppers score 8 out of 10, against 4 for the supermarket's own, should hold its $3 price on Brightmart's shelves.
First, buy the $45,000 deck oven before the first delivery; the deal repays it in about 12 weeks. Second, sign for six months and count shop sales every week: if more than about 257 of the 400 loaves turn out to be her own customers switching, the deal loses money.
The case does not say how many Brightmart shoppers already buy from Lena, and that is the figure that could change the answer.
Four checks before you stop writing
- It answers the question asked. Accept or refuse; one option, not two.
- It names the reason that tips it. The biggest point, with its figure.
- It sets the conditions. What must be done for the choice to work.
- It says what the case leaves out. The missing fact that could change the answer.
A tug of war: Picture the Brightmart deal as the middle of a rope. On one side, everything pulling the bakery towards the deal. On the other, everything pulling it back.
Which side is pulling harder? That is the question a force field analysis answers.
Force field analysis was set out by the psychologist Kurt Lewin. It looks at one planned change and lists the forces pushing it forward (driving forces) and the forces holding it back (restraining forces).
Each force then gets a score for how strong it is (its weighting), for example from 1, weak, to 5, very strong. Adding up each side shows which way the balance tips.
Building a force field
Name the change
Write it in the middle, as one plan: Lena's Bakery Ltd supplies 400 loaves a day to Brightmart.
List the driving forces
Everything that pushes the change forward: the money, the reach, the free advertising.
List the restraining forces
Everything that holds it back: the full oven, the switching customers, the brand, Brightmart's power, the bakers' longer night.
Weight and add
Score each force from 1 to 5 and add up each side. Agree the scores with the people who know: Priti knows the ovens better than anyone.
Driving forces: total 11
- 5 The money: $540 a day, $3,780 a week.
- 4 The reach: Brightmart sells 45% of the town's bread.
- 2 Lena's name on supermarket shelves advertises her four shops.
Restraining forces: total 15
- 4 The oven: 400 more loaves add 40 minutes to a night that is already full.
- 3 Shop customers switching: each loaf moved leaves $0.75 less.
- 3 The brand: a $3 loaf next to a $1.20 one, bought hours after baking.
- 3 Brightmart's power: one big buyer can push the price down or drop the loaf.
- 2 Priti's six bakers: a longer, busier night.
The weights are judgements: Nobody can measure a force as 3 rather than 4. The scores are the team's view, so give a reason for each one: the oven is a 4 because the deal cannot start without it.
Two people can score the same force differently. That is why the scores are agreed together.
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The totals read 11 for the deal and 15 against. As it stands, the forces holding the deal back are stronger.
That is not the end of it. The real use of a force field is to show what to change. You can push harder on the driving forces, or weaken the restraining ones. Weakening them is usually safer: pushing harder can make the people who resist a change resist more.
| Restraining force | Action to weaken it | Weight before and after |
|---|---|---|
| The oven | Buy the planned $45,000 deck oven before the first delivery | 4 → 1 |
| Shop customers switching | A six-month first contract; count shop sales every week before renewing | 3 → 2 |
| The brand | A Lena's shelf with the wheat-ear logo, loaves delivered by seven | 3 → 2 |
| Brightmart's power | The $2.25 price fixed in the contract | 3 → 2 |
| The bakers' night | One more night baker, chosen with Priti | 2 → 1 |
| Total | 15 → 8 |
Reading the totals: Before the actions: 11 for, 15 against. Hold back.
After them: 11 for, 8 against. Go ahead, and the actions become the conditions of the recommendation. They cost money, the oven and a baker's wages, but $540 a day repays the oven in about 12 weeks.
What it does well
- Shows the balance at a glance, on one page
- Points to the forces worth weakening, not just the verdict
- Brings the people affected, like Priti, into the decision
Where it falls short
- The weights are opinions: another team could score 11 against 12
- Adding scores makes guesses look precise
- A force nobody thought of is simply missing, and forces change over time
SWOT or force field?: A SWOT describes where the business stands. A force field weighs one planned change.
Use them together: the SWOT finds the points, the force field weighs them and shows what to do about the ones holding the change back.
How this comes up: A case with figures and two options: recommend which one the business should choose, for ten marks. Or one plan: discuss whether the business should go ahead. The SWOT may be given, or you build the points from the case yourself.
Either way the answer is judged on the same things: the case used with its figures, both sides argued, and a judgement that follows from them.
A force field analysis can sit inside the answer: weights on the forces for and against make the balance, and the conditions, easy to see.
The ten-mark pattern
- Sort the case. Strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats for this decision, each with a figure.
- Argue for and against the first option. Point, evidence, effect on the business.
- Argue for and against the second. The same way, with the case's own figures.
- Weigh. Which point is biggest, which can be fixed, which is still unknown.
- Recommend. One option, the reason that tips it, its condition, and what the case leaves out.
The trap: four boxes and no verdict: A SWOT copied from the case, followed by a line saying both options have merits, stays in the lower levels. The boxes describe; the question asks you to decide.
The opposite trap: one option argued, the other ignored. A recommendation means little if the other option was never tested.
Using the information in the stimulus and Table 1, recommend which option Goldcrust plc should choose to raise sales in its home country.
Model answer plan
See the mark-by-mark plan — for / against / judgement, with marking guidance — in study mode.