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NotesMath AI HLTopic 4.9Normal Probabilities
Back to Math AI HL Topics
4.9.29 min read

Normal Probabilities (Math AI HL)

IB Mathematics: Applications and Interpretation · Unit 4

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Contents

  1. 1Probability or boundary?
  2. 2Find an area with normalcdf
  3. 3Translate the exam words
  4. 4Find a cutoff with invNorm
  5. 5Central areas and an unknown endpoint
  6. 6Expected numbers and time cutoffs
  7. 7Find a cutoff from a number in a group
  8. 8Mixed normal-distribution exam questions
  9. 9Exam traps
  10. 10Add independent normal variables before finding a probability
  11. 11Given a measurement: which group did it come from?

Example: battery lifetimes

1

What is given?

Battery lifetimes follow a normal model. Mean = 100 hours. SD = 15 hours.

2

Question A: find a chance

“What is the chance a battery lasts less than 120 hours?”

120 hours is given in the question. Use normalcdf to find the chance below it.

3

Question B: find a lifetime

“What lifetime has 90% of batteries below it?”

Here 90% is given, but the lifetime is unknown. Use invNorm to find it, in hours.

Select Below 120: coral shows batteries lasting less than the given 120 hours.

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What are −1E99 and 1E99?

Calculator stand-ins for far left and far right.

Below 120: lower = −1E99; upper = 120.

Where do μ and σ go?

After the bounds in normalcdf.

Mean 100, SD 15: normalcdf(lower,upper,100,15).

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Find a probability

1

Read the question

Scores have mean 100, SD 15. Find the chance of a score below 120.

2

Enter the four inputs

normalcdf(−1E99,120,100,15)

Lower end · upper end · mean · SD. −1E99 means far left.

3

Read the result

0.909 ≈ 90.9%. Probability × 100 gives the percentage.

Below 120: coral is the area we want.

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Which part of the bell curve do I want?: Below → left. Above → right. Between → middle. Try each button below.

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Question wordingMeaningShade
Below 120Less than 120Left of 120
Above 120More than 120Right of 120
Between 85 and 120From 85 to 120Middle
Lowest 8%8% below the cutoffLeft tail
Highest 2%2% above the cutoffRight tail

Highest 2%: where do I shade?

The highest values are on the right. Shade the small right-hand tail.

Lowest 8%: where do I shade?

The lowest values are on the left. Shade the small left-hand tail.

Find the height for the tallest 10%

1

Read the question

Mean height 170 cm, SD 6 cm. Where do the tallest 10% begin?

2

Use the area on the left

10% is above the cutoff. 100% − 10% = 90% below. Enter 0.90.

3

Find the cutoff

invNorm(0.90,170,6) = 177.689… cm.

Answer: 178 cm to 3 significant figures.

Set left area to 90%. The remaining 10% is the tallest group.

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Fastest or slowest?

For times: fastest = smaller values; slowest = larger values.

Slowest 15%: enter 0.85 as the left area.

Top 2%: which calculator area?

2% above the cutoff → 98% below it.

invNorm needs the area below, so enter 0.98.

Bottom 8%: which calculator area?

8% below the cutoff is already the left area.

Enter 0.08 in invNorm.

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Find the middle 80%

1

Read the question

Diameters: mean 40 mm, SD 1.5 mm. Find the middle 80% interval.

2

Split the outside

20% outside → 10% per tail. Left areas at the two ends: 0.10 and 0.90.

3

Calculate both ends

invNorm(0.10,40,1.5) ≈ 38.1

invNorm(0.90,40,1.5) ≈ 41.9

Answer: 38.1–41.9 mm.

Coral = middle 80%. Each tail = 10%.

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An interval is not centred?

Subtract its area from the area below its known upper endpoint.

Example: mean 100, SD 15; P(k < X < 120) = 0.68.

P(X < 120) = 0.908788… Left area at k = 0.908788… − 0.68 = 0.228788… k = invNorm(0.228788…,100,15) ≈ 88.9.

Do not assume every 68% interval is μ ± σ.

Find the half-width m?

Find one endpoint, then its distance from the mean.

Central 60%, mean 4, SD 0.25: upper left area = 0.80. Upper endpoint = 4.210405…; m = 4.210405… − 4 = 0.210.

Chance → expected number

1

Read the question

200 batteries. Lifetimes have mean 100 hours, SD 15 hours. How many last more than 120 hours, on average?

2

Find the chance for one battery

normalcdf(120,1E99,100,15) = 0.0912112…

About 9.12% last beyond 120 hours.

3

Multiply by 200

200 × 0.0912112… ≈ 18.2 batteries on average. Use the unrounded probability.

Coral = batteries lasting more than 120 hours.

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Can an expected number be a decimal?

Yes: it is a long-run average.

Example: 18.2 items is an expected count, even though an actual count is whole.

Add a transfer time?

Find the arrival cutoff, then add the transfer time.

Example: arrival mean 20 minutes late, SD 10; 99% cutoff = invNorm(0.99,20,10) = 43.263… minutes late. Add 10 minutes to change → 53.263… minutes after the scheduled arrival.

If asked for the earliest WHOLE minute meeting at least 99%, round UP to 54 minutes. A nearest-minute instruction is different.

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A group count → a cutoff

1

Read the question

80 animals. Masses have mean 30 kg, SD 4 kg. The heaviest 12 animals are above a cutoff. Find it.

2

Turn 12 animals into an area

12 ÷ 80 = 0.15 above the cutoff.

Left area = 1 − 0.15 = 0.85.

3

Find the mass

invNorm(0.85,30,4) ≈ 34.1 kg.

85% below the cutoff; the heaviest 15% above it.

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One example, four exam tasks

1

Read the situation

Bag masses: mean 250 g, SD 12 g. Use the same mean and SD in each part.

2

Chance above 270 g

normalcdf(270,1E99,250,12) ≈ 0.0478.

3

Chance between 240 and 260 g

normalcdf(240,260,250,12) ≈ 0.595.

4

Expected bags below 235 g, out of 150

150 × normalcdf(−1E99,235,250,12) ≈ 15.8 bags.

5

Cutoff for the heaviest 8%

Heaviest = right-hand tail: 8% is above the cutoff.

invNorm needs the percentage below it: 100% − 8% = 92% → 0.92.

invNorm(0.92,250,12) ≈ 267 g (3 s.f.). Shade above the cutoff, to the right.

Above 270 is shaded. Try Between to compare regions.

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What if it says lightest 8%?

Lightest = left-hand tail. 8% is already below the cutoff.

Enter 0.08, not 0.92:

invNorm(0.08,250,12) ≈ 233 g (3 s.f.).

Heaviest: subtract from 1. Lightest: use the percentage directly.

Two independent measurements?

If one meets the condition with probability q, both do with probability q².

This uses the independence rule from 4.5.

Normal probability AND another event?

Use the conditional rate for that group.

P(heavy and lost) = P(heavy) × P(lost | heavy).

Example: 0.252492… × 1/12 ≈ 0.0210.

The question specifies distance from zero?

For 0 < D < 10, enter BOTH bounds.

normalcdf(0,10,26,7) ≈ 0.0110.

The next part counts qualifying items?

Carry the unrounded normal probability into the binomial method already taught in 4.8.2. Do not round it first.

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Before you submit

1

Check the spread

N(100,15²) means SD 15, variance 225. Enter 15.

2

Check the region

Below → left. Above → right. invNorm always needs the left area.

3

Check the answer

Probability: 0 to 1. Measurement: include units. Expected number: group size × probability.

Check the shaded side matches your question.

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Normal values have no ±1 boundary shift

This is a continuous model.

Example: P(X > 120) uses 120, not 119. Binomial count rules do not apply.

How much working?

Write the event and calculator inputs before the result.

Example: P(X > 120) = normalcdf(120,1E99,100,15) ≈ 0.0912.

Very small probability?

Keep significant figures.

Example: 0.000303 = 3.03 × 10⁻⁴, not 0.000.

Variance is not SD

N(100,15²) means SD = 15, variance = 225.

Enter 15 in normalcdf.

Probability or expected number?

A probability is between 0 and 1.

Among 200 items with probability 0.073, expected count = 200 × 0.073 = 14.6.

A percentage requested?

Multiply the probability by 100.

Example: 0.073 → 7.3%.

A sketch requested?

Include a recognisable bell, labelled mean and cutoff, and the correct shaded region.

Add independent normal variables before finding a probability

Cross-topic HL connection: Topic 4.15 teaches combinations of independent normal variables. For a sum, add means and variances; then take the square root to obtain the SD.

A two-stage journey

Independent travel times are A ~ N(8, 1.5²) and B ~ N(12, 2²), in minutes. Find P(A + B > 24).

Step by step

  1. Add means.
  2. Add variances, then find the SD.
  3. Use the new distribution on the GDC.

Final answer

About 0.0548. If a fixed three-minute break is added, the mean becomes 23 but the SD stays 2.5.

The sum has mean 20 and SD 2.5. The right-hand shaded tail is the probability above 24.

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Given a measurement: which group did it come from?

Combine the normal model with conditional probability: First find the measurement probability within each group. Multiply by the chance of that group, add the paths, and only then divide.

An item from one of two production lines

60% of items come from line A and 40% from line B. Measurements are N(70, 5²) on A and N(60, 5²) on B. Given a measurement above 65, find the probability the item came from A.

Step by step

  1. Find the upper-tail probability within each group.
  2. Weight the two paths using the production shares.
  3. Restrict attention to the items above 65.

Final answer

About 0.888. Do not average the two means or divide by 0.6; the given condition is the high measurement.

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