IB Math AA HL · 2021 to 2026
Unit 4: Statistics & Probability
271 past paper questions from 39 exam sittings. See what repeats, then practise the same skills with AI marking.
Starter set: 30 AI-marked questions across the most-tested skills
2021 to 2026 · HL
Unit 4: Statistics & Probability
Latest sitting May 2026
- questions
- 271
- questions
- sittings
- 39
- sittings
- micro-topics
- 27
- micro-topics
2021 to 2026
Topics in Unit 4: Statistics & Probability
In syllabus order. The ring is the share of the marks each one carries.
4.1
Sampling & reliability
0% of the marks · 1 question
4.2
Data presentation
1% of the marks · 6 questions
4.3
Central tendency & spread
7% of the marks · 18 questions
4.4
Correlation & regression
8% of the marks · 31 questions
4.5
Probability basics
3% of the marks · 8 questions
4.6
Combined & conditional events
15% of the marks · 37 questions
4.7
Discrete random variables
8% of the marks · 22 questions
4.8
Binomial distribution
10% of the marks · 24 questions
4.9
Normal distribution
4% of the marks · 16 questions
- DueNormal probabilities
4.10
Regression & prediction
2% of the marks · 7 questions
4.11
Conditional probability
8% of the marks · 17 questions
4.12
z-values & inverse normal
8% of the marks · 17 questions
- Risingz-values
4.13
Bayes' theorem (HL only)
3% of the marks · 6 questions
4.14
Continuous random variables (HL only)
24% of the marks · 61 questions
- RisingContinuous random variables: the pdf
Exam pattern
Which micro-topics repeat, and which are due, rising or fading.
Does it repeat?
Top 4 of 27 micro-topics for the next sitting. Numbers are questions per year.
fewermore
| Micro-topic | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 11 | 1 | |
| 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 1 | |
4.11.1Conditional probability | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 5 | · |
4.6.3Independent events | 2 | 5 | · | 3 | 3 | 1 |
4 more micro-topics with a free account
- DueNormal probabilities· last May 25 P2 TZ2
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Every micro-topic in the heatmap and the complete watch list, free with an account.
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Explore by exam session
Where Unit 4: Statistics & Probability came up in each paper. Open a paper to see those questions highlighted.
May 2026
5 questions across 2 papers
November 2025
9 questions across 3 papers
May 2025
13 questions across 7 papers
November 2024
4 questions across 2 papers
May 2024
12 questions across 6 papers
November 2023
4 questions across 2 papers
May 2023
11 questions across 4 papers
November 2022
4 questions across 2 papers
May 2022
11 questions across 4 papers
November 2021
4 questions across 2 papers
May 2021
9 questions across 3 papers
Specimen 2021
5 questions across 2 papers
Every Unit 4: Statistics & Probability question, unlocked
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Frequently asked questions
Short answers about this page.
Which Math AA HL exam sessions are covered for Unit 4: Statistics & Probability?
12 sessions from 2021 to 2026, the latest May 2026. Every Paper 1, 2 and 3 in every timezone is read and classified in full.
Which Unit 4: Statistics & Probability topic comes up most?
Continuous: mean, median, mode, variance (4.14.3): in 26% of sittings, last seen May 26 P2, usually a "find / solve" question worth about 3.2 marks.
Can I see the original question and mark scheme?
No. The wording belongs to the IB. You get the citation, the marks, the command term and the skill tested, plus our own practice questions of the same shape with worked answers and AI marking.
What do "banker", "due" and "rising" mean?
Banker: examined in at least one sitting in four and still appearing. Due: regular before, but absent for the last two exam sessions. Rising: clearly more common in the last two years. Our classification of real papers, not an IB statistic.
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Reading this page and the exam pattern is free. A free account generates three sets of ten questions and launches one practice set. Pro opens every question in any scope, sets of twenty or all, and unlimited practice.
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