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NotesMath AA HLTopic 4.9Normal probabilities and inverse normal
Back to Math AA HL Topics
4.9.110 min read

Normal probabilities and inverse normal (Math AA HL)

IB Mathematics: Analysis and Approaches · Unit 4

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Contents

  1. 1Probability or boundary?
  2. 2Find an area with normalcdf
  3. 3Translate the exam words
  4. 4Find a cutoff with invNorm
  5. 5Central areas and an unknown endpoint
  6. 6Expected numbers and time cutoffs
  7. 7Find a cutoff from a number in a group
  8. 8Mixed normal-distribution exam questions
  9. 9Exam traps

Example: battery lifetimes

1

What is given?

Battery lifetimes follow a normal model. Mean = 100 hours. SD = 15 hours.

2

Question A: find a chance

“What is the chance a battery lasts less than 120 hours?”

120 hours is given in the question. Use normalcdf to find the chance below it.

3

Question B: find a lifetime

“What lifetime has 90% of batteries below it?”

Here 90% is given, but the lifetime is unknown. Use invNorm to find it, in hours.

Select Below 120: coral shows batteries lasting less than the given 120 hours.

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What are −1E99 and 1E99?

Calculator stand-ins for far left and far right.

Below 120: lower = −1E99; upper = 120.

Where do μ and σ go?

After the bounds in normalcdf.

Mean 100, SD 15: normalcdf(lower,upper,100,15).

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Find a probability

1

Read the question

Scores have mean 100, SD 15. Find the chance of a score below 120.

2

Enter the four inputs

normalcdf(−1E99,120,100,15)

Lower end · upper end · mean · SD. −1E99 means far left.

3

Read the result

0.909 ≈ 90.9%. Probability × 100 gives the percentage.

Below 120: coral is the area we want.

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Which part of the bell curve do I want?: Below → left. Above → right. Between → middle. Try each button below.

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Question wordingMeaningShade
Below 120Less than 120Left of 120
Above 120More than 120Right of 120
Between 85 and 120From 85 to 120Middle
Lowest 8%8% below the cutoffLeft tail
Highest 2%2% above the cutoffRight tail

Highest 2%: where do I shade?

The highest values are on the right. Shade the small right-hand tail.

Lowest 8%: where do I shade?

The lowest values are on the left. Shade the small left-hand tail.

Find the height for the tallest 10%

1

Read the question

Mean height 170 cm, SD 6 cm. Where do the tallest 10% begin?

2

Use the area on the left

10% is above the cutoff. 100% − 10% = 90% below. Enter 0.90.

3

Find the cutoff

invNorm(0.90,170,6) = 177.689… cm.

Answer: 178 cm to 3 significant figures.

Set left area to 90%. The remaining 10% is the tallest group.

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Fastest or slowest?

For times: fastest = smaller values; slowest = larger values.

Slowest 15%: enter 0.85 as the left area.

Top 2%: which calculator area?

2% above the cutoff → 98% below it.

invNorm needs the area below, so enter 0.98.

Bottom 8%: which calculator area?

8% below the cutoff is already the left area.

Enter 0.08 in invNorm.

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Find the middle 80%

1

Read the question

Diameters: mean 40 mm, SD 1.5 mm. Find the middle 80% interval.

2

Split the outside

20% outside → 10% per tail. Left areas at the two ends: 0.10 and 0.90.

3

Calculate both ends

invNorm(0.10,40,1.5) ≈ 38.1

invNorm(0.90,40,1.5) ≈ 41.9

Answer: 38.1–41.9 mm.

Coral = middle 80%. Each tail = 10%.

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An interval is not centred?

Subtract its area from the area below its known upper endpoint.

Example: mean 100, SD 15; P(k < X < 120) = 0.68.

P(X < 120) = 0.908788… Left area at k = 0.908788… − 0.68 = 0.228788… k = invNorm(0.228788…,100,15) ≈ 88.9.

Do not assume every 68% interval is μ ± σ.

Find the half-width m?

Find one endpoint, then its distance from the mean.

Central 60%, mean 4, SD 0.25: upper left area = 0.80. Upper endpoint = 4.210405…; m = 4.210405… − 4 = 0.210.

Chance → expected number

1

Read the question

200 batteries. Lifetimes have mean 100 hours, SD 15 hours. How many last more than 120 hours, on average?

2

Find the chance for one battery

normalcdf(120,1E99,100,15) = 0.0912112…

About 9.12% last beyond 120 hours.

3

Multiply by 200

200 × 0.0912112… ≈ 18.2 batteries on average. Use the unrounded probability.

Coral = batteries lasting more than 120 hours.

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Can an expected number be a decimal?

Yes: it is a long-run average.

Example: 18.2 items is an expected count, even though an actual count is whole.

Add a transfer time?

Find the arrival cutoff, then add the transfer time.

Example: arrival mean 20 minutes late, SD 10; 99% cutoff = invNorm(0.99,20,10) = 43.263… minutes late. Add 10 minutes to change → 53.263… minutes after the scheduled arrival.

If asked for the earliest WHOLE minute meeting at least 99%, round UP to 54 minutes. A nearest-minute instruction is different.

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A group count → a cutoff

1

Read the question

80 animals. Masses have mean 30 kg, SD 4 kg. The heaviest 12 animals are above a cutoff. Find it.

2

Turn 12 animals into an area

12 ÷ 80 = 0.15 above the cutoff.

Left area = 1 − 0.15 = 0.85.

3

Find the mass

invNorm(0.85,30,4) ≈ 34.1 kg.

85% below the cutoff; the heaviest 15% above it.

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One example, four exam tasks

1

Read the situation

Bag masses: mean 250 g, SD 12 g. Use the same mean and SD in each part.

2

Chance above 270 g

normalcdf(270,1E99,250,12) ≈ 0.0478.

3

Chance between 240 and 260 g

normalcdf(240,260,250,12) ≈ 0.595.

4

Expected bags below 235 g, out of 150

150 × normalcdf(−1E99,235,250,12) ≈ 15.8 bags.

5

Cutoff for the heaviest 8%

Heaviest = right-hand tail: 8% is above the cutoff.

invNorm needs the percentage below it: 100% − 8% = 92% → 0.92.

invNorm(0.92,250,12) ≈ 267 g (3 s.f.). Shade above the cutoff, to the right.

Above 270 is shaded. Try Between to compare regions.

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What if it says lightest 8%?

Lightest = left-hand tail. 8% is already below the cutoff.

Enter 0.08, not 0.92:

invNorm(0.08,250,12) ≈ 233 g (3 s.f.).

Heaviest: subtract from 1. Lightest: use the percentage directly.

Two independent measurements?

If one meets the condition with probability q, both do with probability q².

This uses the independence rule from 4.6.

Normal probability AND another event?

Use the conditional rate for that group.

P(heavy and lost) = P(heavy) × P(lost | heavy).

Example: 0.252492… × 1/12 ≈ 0.0210.

The question specifies distance from zero?

For 0 < D < 10, enter BOTH bounds.

normalcdf(0,10,26,7) ≈ 0.0110.

The next part counts qualifying items?

Carry the unrounded normal probability into the binomial method already taught in 4.8.1. Do not round it first.

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Before you submit

1

Check the spread

N(100,15²) means SD 15, variance 225. Enter 15.

2

Check the region

Below → left. Above → right. invNorm always needs the left area.

3

Check the answer

Probability: 0 to 1. Measurement: include units. Expected number: group size × probability.

Check the shaded side matches your question.

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Normal values have no ±1 boundary shift

This is a continuous model.

Example: P(X > 120) uses 120, not 119. Binomial count rules do not apply.

How much working?

Write the event and calculator inputs before the result.

Example: P(X > 120) = normalcdf(120,1E99,100,15) ≈ 0.0912.

Very small probability?

Keep significant figures.

Example: 0.000303 = 3.03 × 10⁻⁴, not 0.000.

Variance is not SD

N(100,15²) means SD = 15, variance = 225.

Enter 15 in normalcdf.

Probability or expected number?

A probability is between 0 and 1.

Among 200 items with probability 0.073, expected count = 200 × 0.073 = 14.6.

A percentage requested?

Multiply the probability by 100.

Example: 0.073 → 7.3%.

A sketch requested?

Include a recognisable bell, labelled mean and cutoff, and the correct shaded region.

Additional AA exam practice

IB-style question — read the parameters

The masses of apples are modelled by X ~ N(150, 20²) grams.

State the mean and standard deviation, and the value the distribution is symmetric about.

Step by step

  1. N(μ, σ²): first is the mean, second is the variance.
  2. Symmetric about the mean.

Final answer

Mean 150 g, standard deviation 20 g, symmetric about 150 g.

IB-style question — P(X < a)

X ~ N(50, 8²).

Find P(X < 60) and P(X > 60).

Step by step

  1. P(X < 60) = normalcdf(−∞, 60, 50, 8).
  2. P(X > 60) is the complement.

Final answer

P(X < 60) ≈ 0.894; P(X > 60) ≈ 0.106.

IB-style question — find σ from the IQR

A normally distributed variable has interquartile range 13.49.

Find its standard deviation σ.

Step by step

  1. The quartiles sit 0.6745 standard deviations either side of the mean (invNorm(0.75) = 0.6745), so the IQR spans 2 × 0.6745 = 1.349 standard deviations.
  2. Solve for σ.

Final answer

σ = 10.

IB-style question — conditional on a normal region

X ~ N(20, 4²). Find P(X > 24 | X > 18).

Step by step

  1. Conditional: keep only X > 18, take the X > 24 slice.
  2. Each probability from normalcdf on the GDC.

Final answer

≈ 0.230.

IB-style question — find μ and σ from two probabilities

X ~ N(μ, σ²), with P(X < 50) = 0.2 and P(X < 70) = 0.9.

Find μ and σ.

Step by step

  1. Standardise each probability using invNorm to get the z-values, then write two equations.
  2. Subtract to eliminate μ.
  3. Back-substitute for μ.

Final answer

μ ≈ 57.9, σ ≈ 9.42.

IB-style question — empirical rule

Heights are X ~ N(170, 10²) cm.

Use the empirical rule to estimate P(160 < X < 180).

Step by step

  1. 160 and 180 are μ − σ and μ + σ.
  2. Within 1σ → empirical rule.

Final answer

About 0.68 (68%).

IB-style question — how many

Bolt lengths are X ~ N(50, 2²) mm.

A bolt is rejected if it is longer than 53 mm.

In a batch of 400 bolts, find the expected number rejected.

Step by step

  1. Probability one bolt is too long.
  2. Expected number = probability × 400.

Final answer

About 27 bolts are expected to be rejected.

IB-style question — normalcdf

Reaction times are X ~ N(80, 6²) milliseconds.

Find P(74 < X < 92).

Step by step

  1. Two bounds, so use normalcdf(lower, upper, μ, σ).
  2. Read the answer off the GDC (3 s.f.).

Final answer

P(74 < X < 92) ≈ 0.819.

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X ~ N(20, 42). Find P(X > 26). [2 marks]

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