Balance of payments

1) Trade in goods (visible trade/merchandise). 2) Trade in services (invisible trade). 3) Primary income (wages, investment returns). 4) Secondary income (transfers — aid, remittances).

The part of the BoP that records cross-border transactions involving financial assets: foreign direct investment (FDI), portfolio investment (shares, bonds), and changes in official reserve assets (central bank reserves).

A record of all economic transactions between the residents of a country and the rest of the world over a given time period. It consists of the current account, capital account, and financial account.

Exports of goods minus imports of goods. A positive value means a trade surplus (exports > imports); negative means a trade deficit (imports > exports). This is typically the largest component of the current account.

1) Current account: trade in goods/services, income, transfers. 2) Capital account: transfers of non-financial assets (small). 3) Financial account: FDI, portfolio investment, reserve changes. The BoP must always balance to zero.

FDI is a long-term investment establishing a lasting interest in a foreign business (≥10% ownership), e.g. building a factory. Portfolio investment is buying foreign financial assets (shares, bonds) without control, often short-term and mobile.

A current account deficit must be financed by a financial account surplus. The country borrows from abroad, sells assets, or attracts FDI/portfolio investment to cover the gap between what it earns and what it spends.

Earnings from factors of production owned abroad: wages earned by citizens working in other countries and investment income (profits, dividends, interest) from foreign assets. Net = income received − income paid.

It is a double-entry accounting system. Every transaction has two sides — e.g., buying imports (current account debit) must be financed by selling assets or borrowing (financial account credit). A deficit in one account is offset by a surplus elsewhere.

Official reserves are foreign currency and gold held by the central bank. Changes in reserves are recorded in the financial account. Selling reserves finances a deficit; buying reserves absorbs a surplus.

The whole BoP always balances (by definition). When people say "BoP deficit," they usually mean a current account deficit — where the country imports more goods/services than it exports, spending more abroad than it earns.

One-way transfers of money where nothing is received in return: foreign aid, remittances sent by workers to their home countries, and contributions to international organisations.

Germany consistently runs a large current account surplus due to strong manufacturing exports (cars, machinery). Its exports of goods far exceed imports, and it earns significant investment income from foreign assets.

It is a statistical balancing entry that accounts for measurement errors, unrecorded transactions, and timing differences. It ensures the BoP sums to zero even when data is imperfect.

A country's deficit is another's surplus. Capital flows, trade, and income transfers connect economies. A financial crisis in one country can spread through the BoP — reduced imports hit partners' exports and FDI withdrawals cause currency crises.

Exports of goods minus imports of goods. A negative answer is a deficit.

Add the four balances: trade in goods + trade in services + income + current transfers, keeping their signs.

Every payment out must be paid for: a current account deficit is matched by a surplus on the financial and capital accounts (plus errors and omissions).

+$7 billion, so that −8 + 1 + 7 = 0.

High consumer spending on imports, strong currency (making imports cheaper), low export competitiveness (high costs, poor quality), high domestic inflation, strong economic growth pulling in imports, and over-valued exchange rate.

High export competitiveness, weak/undervalued currency, low domestic demand (limiting imports), high savings rates, natural resource exports (e.g. oil), and strong global demand for the country's products.

Strong domestic growth increases demand for imports (consumers buy more foreign goods). If trading partners are growing slowly, export demand may stagnate. This combination typically worsens the current account.

An overvalued/strong currency makes exports expensive and imports cheap, worsen the CA. An undervalued/weak currency makes exports cheap and imports expensive, improving the CA (subject to the Marshall-Lerner condition).

Not necessarily. It may reflect strong FDI inflows (positive sign for the economy) or high growth that pulls in capital goods imports for future production. However, persistent deficits funded by borrowing can lead to unsustainable debt.

Rising foreign debt, currency depreciation pressure, loss of foreign reserves, potential loss of investor confidence, higher interest rates to attract capital, and ultimately lower living standards if debts become unsustainable.

Upward pressure on the currency (may harm exports), trading-partner resentment and potential trade disputes, build-up of foreign reserves, and under-consumption domestically (saving too much, spending too little).

If foreign investors lose confidence, they withdraw capital and sell the currency. This causes rapid depreciation, which raises import prices, fuels inflation, increases foreign debt servicing costs, and can trigger a recession.

The US has run persistent current account deficits for decades, funded by foreign purchases of US assets (especially Treasury bonds). This has led to concerns about growing foreign debt and dependence on foreign capital.

Large, persistent imbalances create instability. Deficit countries accumulate debt; surplus countries accumulate claims on foreign assets. A sudden correction (e.g. capital flight) can trigger financial crises that spread globally.

After a currency depreciation, the current account initially worsens before improving, tracing a J-shape over time. This happens because volumes (quantities) adjust more slowly than prices.

Contractionary fiscal policy (higher taxes, lower spending) or tighter monetary policy (higher interest rates) reduce aggregate demand. Lower incomes mean less spending on imports, improving the current account.

Existing import contracts are priced in foreign currency, so import bills rise immediately. Export volumes take time to respond because firms need time to increase production and foreign buyers need time to adjust purchasing patterns.

Policies that redirect spending from imports to domestically produced goods: devaluation/depreciation of the exchange rate, tariffs, quotas, or subsidies for domestic producers. These make imports dearer or domestic goods more attractive.

Policies that improve productivity and competitiveness: investment in education, infrastructure, technology, deregulation, and reducing costs of production. These make exports more competitive in the long run.

Over time, the lower prices attract more export demand and consumers switch away from expensive imports to domestic substitutes. Demand becomes more elastic in the long run, so the trade balance improves.

Depreciation will improve the current account only if the sum of price elasticities of demand for exports and imports is greater than 1 (PED_X + PED_M > 1). If demand is inelastic, depreciation worsens the balance.

While it reduces imports, it also slows economic growth, increases unemployment, and lowers living standards. The deficit improves but at a significant domestic cost — a conflict between internal and external balance.

They improve competitiveness without reducing demand or triggering inflation. However, they take years to have effect, require significant investment, and outcomes are uncertain. Short-term measures may be needed while supply-side reforms take hold.

Estimates vary, but the initial worsening phase typically lasts 6 to 18 months. The speed depends on how quickly firms and consumers adjust, the availability of domestic substitutes, and the nature of trade contracts.