Priti's question: Lena and Marco have signed for the fourth shop, on Station Road, and it opens in September. Priti, the head baker, reads the plan and asks one thing: how many loaves will it sell?
She is not being difficult. Every loaf for every shop is baked overnight at Mill Lane. Until she has a number, she cannot say how many bakers she needs, how much flour to order or whether the oven can cope.
Nobody knows for certain what Station Road will sell. But the bakery can make its best estimate and write it down.
Estimating how much a business will sell in the coming weeks, months or years is sales forecasting. The result, a number for a stated period, is a sales forecast. It starts from what the business sold in the past and adds what it knows about what is coming: a new shop, a new rival, new homes being built nearby.
| Shop | Sold in 2025 (loaves a day) | Forecast for 2026 (loaves a day) | What Marco took into account |
|---|---|---|---|
| High Street (Aisha) | 410 | 420 | A new office block opposite opens in March |
| Market Square (Kofi) | 390 | 380 | Goldcrust's bakery nearby sells cheaper loaves |
| Park Road (Jonas) | 380 | 400 | 300 new homes on the old dairy site are finished this spring |
| Station Road (new) | Not open | 250, from September | A new shop on a similar street, starting smaller |
| The three shops together | 1,180 | 1,200 | Station Road comes on top |
A number, a unit and a period: A forecast can count things sold (sales volume, in units such as loaves) or the money they bring in (sales revenue). Revenue is volume times price: 250 loaves a day at $3 is $750 a day.
Either way, it always says for when: 'about 250' means nothing until it says 'a day, from September'.
How far ahead, and what for
Next week
Priti sets the night rota and the flour order for the next seven days from the loaves each shop is expected to sell.
Next year
Marco's 2026 forecast, shop by shop, is the starting point for each shop's budget (3.9.1) and for the cash coming in on his cash-flow forecast (3.7).
The next five years
Whether Station Road is worth $120,000 to fit out rests on the cash it is forecast to bring in each year: the $30,000, $32,000 and so on used in 3.8.
A forecast is only an estimate. What makes it worth writing down is what the bakery can do with it before the sales arrive.
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Back to Priti. Marco's answer is 250 loaves a day at Station Road from September. It is July. Here is what that one number lets the bakery arrange while there is still time.
What the Station Road forecast lets the bakery plan
Staff
Mill Lane will bake about 1,450 loaves a night instead of 1,200. Priti adds one baker to the night rota, hired in July and trained in August, and the new shop's counter staff start before opening day. Bakers are hard to find in the town (2.1.1), so a late start could mean no one.
Stock
250 more loaves is about a fifth more than 1,200. Valley Grain is told in July that the flour order rises from September, so the flour arrives on time, at the usual price, and there is room for it in the store.
Capacity and equipment
The Mill Lane oven bakes 600 loaves an hour, so 1,450 loaves need about 2 hours 25 minutes a night instead of 2 hours. The forecast shows how full the oven will be, so the second deck oven (3.8.1) is bought when it is needed, not in a panic.
Money
The forecast is the sales line of each shop's budget (3.9.1) and the cash coming in on the cash-flow forecast (3.7). The bank lending towards the $120,000 fit-out will ask for it too.
The benefit is time: Hiring a baker, changing a flour order, buying an oven and arranging a loan all take weeks. A forecast lets the bakery start them before the sales arrive.
Without one, Station Road's first morning decides everything: queues and empty shelves, or trays of unsold loaves.
| If the bakery plans for too few | If it plans for too many | |
|---|---|---|
| Bakers | Overtime, tired bakers, loaves late to the shops | Wages paid for a baker with nothing to bake |
| Flour and stock | Rush orders at a higher price, or empty shelves | Flour and loaves wasted, cash tied up in stock |
| Customers | Sold out by ten, so they walk to Goldcrust | Plenty on the shelf, at a cost the bakery pays |
| Cash | No overdraft arranged when the bills arrive (3.7) | Money borrowed that sits idle, with interest to pay |
A forecast helps the bakery aim between the two columns. That is what planning resources means: the right number of people, the right amount of stock, enough capacity and the money to pay for them, each in place before it is needed.
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In January Marco gives each shop manager their line of the 2026 forecast: Aisha 420 loaves a day at High Street, Kofi 380 at Market Square, Jonas 400 at Park Road. Each now knows what a good month looks like, and the forecast has three more jobs to do.
Setting targets
- Each shop gets a number to aim for: 420, 380 and 400 loaves a day
- Managers and counter staff can see week by week whether they are on track
- The same numbers are the sales line in each shop's budget (3.9.1)
Big decisions
- Whether Station Road is worth opening: 250 loaves a day has to pay back $120,000 (3.8)
- Which shop or product to grow, and which to cut back
- When to expand, before queues start turning customers away
Learning from the gap
- In 2025 Marco forecast 420 loaves a day at Market Square; it sold 390
- The gap sent Kofi to find out why: Goldcrust's bakery nearby sells cheaper loaves
- So the 2026 forecast is 380, and Kofi has a plan to win customers back
A forecast is not a target: A forecast is the best estimate of what will sell. A target is the number a manager is asked to reach.
Targets are usually built from the forecast, sometimes set a little above it to stretch the team. But writing 450 on Kofi's forecast does not sell one more loaf at Market Square.
| The situation | The benefit that matters most | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Opening Station Road | Planning staff, stock, capacity and finance | Nothing exists yet: every baker, sack of flour and dollar must be arranged before September |
| A steady shop, like Park Road | Setting targets and budgets | The staff and the oven are in place; the forecast gives Jonas a number to run the shop by |
| A shop losing sales, like Market Square | Learning from the gap | Comparing forecast with actual shows the problem early, while there is time to act |
Which benefit matters most depends on the decision in front of the business. In every case the forecast helps only because someone acts on it early: Priti hires, Kofi investigates, Lena and Marco decide.
How this comes up: The short question comes with a case: explain one advantage of sales forecasting for the business, for two marks. One advantage, shown in that business.
The same benefits come back in longer case questions, where each one has to be tied to a figure or a name from the case.
The two-mark pattern
- Name one advantage. Planning resources (staff, stock, capacity), planning finance, setting targets, making strategic decisions, or learning from past mistakes.
- Show it in the case. Use the business's own details: what it sells, how many, who plans what, and what the forecast lets them do in advance.
Two traps: A definition is not an advantage. 'Sales forecasting is estimating future sales from past data' is one mark. The second mark needs what the forecast lets this business do.
No case, no second mark. 'It helps planning' could be any business. 'Priti can hire a baker before Station Road opens' is this one.
Explain one advantage of sales forecasting for Lena's Bakery Ltd.
Model answer plan
See the mark-by-mark plan — for / against / judgement, with marking guidance — in study mode.