Back to Topic 6.6 — Decision trees
6.6.1BM20 flashcards

What are decision trees?

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Card 1 of 206.6.1
6.6.1
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What is a decision tree?

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Card 1definition

Question

What is a decision tree?

Answer

A diagram mapping choices, outcomes, probabilities and financial values — helps decide based on expected value, not gut feeling.

💡 Hint

Choice diagram + probabilities

Card 2concept

Question

Two benefits of decision trees?

Answer

Visual (easy to see all options); quantitative (uses numbers); forces risk assessment; compares expected values.

💡 Hint

Visual + quantitative + risk

Card 3concept

Question

Read a decision tree: start from the ___ at the □

Answer

Left — follow branches to see options, then outcomes at chance nodes.

💡 Hint

Left

Card 4concept

Question

Decision trees: □ = decision, ○ = chance, branches = ___

Answer

Options and outcomes with probabilities and financial values.

💡 Hint

Options + outcomes

Card 5concept

Question

Compare expected values — the highest is usually the best, BUT ___

Answer

Always consider qualitative factors and risk tolerance too.

💡 Hint

Qual + risk tolerance

Card 6concept

Question

Two limitations of decision trees?

Answer

Probabilities are estimates (may be wrong); ignores qualitative factors; complex; gives false precision.

💡 Hint

Estimates + no qual + complex

Card 7definition

Question

Square □ on a decision tree = ___

Answer

Decision node — a point where the manager makes a choice.

💡 Hint

Decision point

Card 8concept

Question

EV = outcome × probability (sum all at each node)

Answer

Expected value calculation — multiply and add.

💡 Hint

Multiply + add

Card 9concept

Question

When evaluating, don't just pick the highest EV — also discuss ___

Answer

Risk, stakeholders and non-financial factors.

💡 Hint

Risk + stakeholders + non-financial

Card 10concept

Question

Benefits: visual, quantitative, forces ___

Answer

Risk assessment — managers must think about probabilities.

💡 Hint

Risk assessment

Card 11concept

Question

Decision trees give a 'false sense of precision' because ___

Answer

The calculations look exact but are based on estimated probabilities — garbage in, garbage out.

💡 Hint

Estimates look precise

Card 12definition

Question

Circle ○ on a decision tree = ___

Answer

Chance node — a point where different outcomes can happen with probabilities.

💡 Hint

Chance/outcome point

Card 13concept

Question

Decision trees don't consider ___

Answer

Qualitative factors — ethics, reputation, morale, stakeholder impact.

💡 Hint

Qualitative factors

Card 14concept

Question

At chance nodes, look at ___ and ___

Answer

Probabilities and payoffs — to calculate expected values.

💡 Hint

Probabilities + payoffs

Card 15concept

Question

Limitations: estimates, ignores ___, false precision

Answer

Qualitative factors (ethics, reputation, morale).

💡 Hint

Qualitative

Card 16concept

Question

Probabilities at each chance node must add up to ___

Answer

1 (or 100%) — if they don't, something is wrong.

💡 Hint

1.0

Card 17concept

Question

Quick: □ = ___. ○ = ___

Answer

Decision node; Chance node.

💡 Hint

Decision; Chance

Card 18concept

Question

A risk-averse business may prefer ___ EV with more ___

Answer

Lower; certainty — safer option even if mathematically inferior.

💡 Hint

Lower EV + more certainty

Card 19concept

Question

Expected value = outcome × ___

Answer

Probability — for each outcome, then sum all results at that node.

💡 Hint

Probability

Card 20concept

Question

Probabilities are ___, so EVs are only as good as ___

Answer

Estimates; the estimates used — they may be wrong.

💡 Hint

Estimates; estimate quality

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